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this is Lou Elizondo and you are

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listening to that UFO podcast

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hi everyone and welcome back to that UFO

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podcast my name is Andy and delighted to

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be joined on the show today by a

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professor at George Mason University and

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researcher at the future of humanity

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Institute at Oxford Mr Robin Hanson

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Robin welcome to the podcast thanks for

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having me very much looking forward to

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this and ever so slightly nervous Robin

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as I mentioned before I've listened to

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your interview with Lex Friedman at

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twice and uh some of that certainly went

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over my head I think I got the gist of

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most of it but I'm looking forward to

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the conversation and seeing where we go

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with it before we get to that I want to

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take you back and ask you what were some

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of your earliest memories of the the

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subject of aliens UFOs

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well UFOs haven't been much of my life

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at all

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obviously I've always enjoyed science

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fiction so the idea of aliens has been

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part of that but that's usually in the

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context of some much larger time scales

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where we our descendants might need

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aliens in in the distant future

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um so you know I have I've never

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expected to meet Aliens myself

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nor have I paid that much attention in

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my lifetime to those who said they had

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so it was very much a passing interest

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obviously but we're going to get to the

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point of talking about having the

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website the papers and your interest

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that you're you've recently been on Lex

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Friedman and millions of people are

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seeing you talk about alien

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civilizations is it something that

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you've really picked up in an academic

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form as you've kind of grown in years

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so one of my main intellectual

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strategies is just to look for important

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neglected topics

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somewhat early on I noticed that even

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though the idea of aliens is obviously

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important it seems somewhat neglected at

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least among intellectuals

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and that tempted me to dabble a bit more

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in it to think about the overall you

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know Arc of history from the origin of

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life to the rise of humans to where we

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might go in the distant future and

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become that whole long-term Arc just

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seems obviously important but not that

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many academics or intellectuals really

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talk about so I did a little work

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thinking about that

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why do you think it has been avoided by

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Academia widely

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I think

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academics start out with the same sort

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of sense of what's important that

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everybody else has but academics are

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selected for being able to be impressive

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in some way they can credential among

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themselves that's really the product

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they sell

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they don't sell just being people

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interested in interesting things they

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sell we have some special method or

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approach that lets us credibly expertly

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say things on a topic that you couldn't

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say unless you knew our expert knowledge

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and methods and therefore academics

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search for topics where they can say

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such things

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and so in most areas of um Academia such

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as mine economics most introductory

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courses are focused on all the things we

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think we can say

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and then all the things we don't know

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much about or can't say we usually just

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shut up about and try to like pretend it

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doesn't exist

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and that's really interesting because

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some people who especially in the past I

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I would listen to podcasts or interviews

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of where Professor Brian Cox uh Neil

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deGrasse Tyson and even astronaut Chris

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Hadfield have all recently been quite

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outspoken and at times derogatory about

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the subject of of aliens and

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encompassing that UFOs and the

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mainstream media

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as someone who isn't a scientist quite

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clearly like myself

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as the basis of you know these kind of

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as a scientist you want to explore and

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you want to find new things and like you

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say the idea of aliens and alien

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civilizations would be one of the

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greatest discoveries of all time why do

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you think again these very well-known

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people is it the same sort of reasons

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you think they stayed away from that

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conversation

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I think in general

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um we scientists try to follow an ideal

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concept of inference or drawing

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conclusions

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and there's this idea of Bayesian

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inference which is one of our

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mathematical models of it and and this

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formal theory of how we draw conclusions

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says on each topic we combine two things

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we combine some prior probabilities of

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what seems plausible times some evidence

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of particular things we see and that

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might push us toward one conclusion or

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another

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so

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um in general academics and everyone

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else when we think of things like ghosts

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or fairies

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uh then we ask from our point of view of

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our basic Theory the other things we

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know about the world how a priori

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plausible is it that there are say

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ghosts or fairies

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and then we multiply that times any

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particular reports that people have seen

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uh and try to ask well if that theory

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was true or some other theory was true

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How likely is it that this sort of

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report would have been generated and

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you're supposed to multiply those two

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two things for each different Theory and

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then renormalize over all the theories

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and that's supposed to tell you what

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things to believe in

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and so most intellectuals and academics

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on these topics usually it's the priors

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that make them uninterested

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so given everything else we know about

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say the universe uh our prior on ghosts

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and fairies is really low we think

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that's just crazy unlikely

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and if your prior is low enough then any

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particular evidence you see where you

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say yeah that's kind of weird but it's

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more likely that a weird thing was

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generated by an ordinary reality that

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just happened in some situation to come

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out looking weird then it would be

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to have been generated by an actual

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weird thing so if we get to something

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like UFOs many people would classify

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that as like ghosts or fairies they

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would say look sure if it were true it'd

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be really interesting

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but given everything else we know it's

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so a priori unlikely that you just

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really can't take much evidence for it

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very seriously

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um now in the past we've had things that

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were classified as like ghosts and

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fairies that have turned out now in the

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consensus to be true so for example

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asteroids were once thought of as just

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crazy rocks couldn't be falling from the

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sky now we believe that's true ball

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lightning is something that people

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thought well you know that's pretty

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crazy but then they generated in the lab

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and so people go I guess it's real

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because we've made it in the lab and

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then there are some very high level

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kinds of lightning that the first pilot

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saw sort of octopus looking pink things

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way up high in the atmosphere

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and uh Pilots learn quickly to not

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report them because they didn't want to

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be thought of as crazy because they

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wanted to keep a pilot's license but and

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so nobody reported it for many decades

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until NASA put up a satellite and looked

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in high in the atmosphere and there was

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these big pink octopus like lightning so

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in the past we have

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on occasion come across things that

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people had dismissed and

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they were you know revised so then the

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question about UFOs is how implausible

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is it from a priority considerations

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that there would actually be you know

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real things behind this phenomena

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and that's where I think I have some

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expertise

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and that's where I would weigh in on the

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topic so I do not consider myself very

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expert on the particular sightings and

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the particular reports I mean I think to

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look at that you need to know the

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weather you need to be no be pilot

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expertise you know the technology and

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equipment and the kinds of sensors and

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those are the kind of things you should

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know about if you want to weigh in on

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the particular reports and I've done

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sort of an amateur survey enough to say

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well there's you know something to be

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taken seriously there

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but I don't want to weigh in the the

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most thing I would say is when I've

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looked at the best evidence for say

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ghosts or fairies I say that looks

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pretty weak

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and when I look at UFOs I go that looks

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a lot stronger I can't tell you how much

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stronger but a lot stronger more

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something to be taken seriously but I'm

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not going to claim to be an expert there

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I'm going to be a claiming to be an

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expert on the prior that is how how

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plausible is it on basic considerations

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that there would be some powerful

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creatures who could and would do the

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powerful amazing things we seem to see

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with UFOs

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let me ask you and I want you to pick a

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part the way I I sometimes in my

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layman's terms try and talk about this

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and you can please do pull this apart if

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it's completely wrong I've often said

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that when people talk about it it would

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be almost impossible for another

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civilization to have technology to

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travel the distance required to to visit

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us here on Earth even if they did exist

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somewhere else and I've I've often used

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the example that if people were standing

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on the shore long before we invented

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even boats or a method to sell

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the traversing the oceans would have

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seemed impossible because we didn't have

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the sufficient craft or technology to do

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that and isn't it just a case of another

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civilization being sufficiently advanced

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could have developed those means and

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methods to travel distances that we once

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thought were incredibly you know vast

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but to them because of how they do it

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it's not or is that too simple

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in order for a scenario to be plausible

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we need to think about all the different

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aspects of that scenario we can and ask

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whether that whole combination is

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plausible so if you know some scenario

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has a particular element that particular

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element might seem plausible but that

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doesn't mean the whole scenario is

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possible so if you say assume the aliens

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you know had crafts and they came to

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visit here would they have doors in The

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Craft well yeah I guess they probably

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have doors

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and you might say see haha this isn't so

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crazy these people reported seeing a

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door in this thing and I go well yeah

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that part of the report isn't so crazy

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given that there's this thing here sure

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there's a door but I might say but the

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rest of the scenario you generated

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that's the thing I might have a problem

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with right so you might say couldn't

279
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there have been some civilization out

280
00:10:26,150 --> 00:10:25,079
there and you know long ago and they're

281
00:10:28,910 --> 00:10:26,160
much more advanced than they came here

282
00:10:30,829 --> 00:10:28,920
and I'd say sure given that they're more

283
00:10:33,470 --> 00:10:30,839
advanced then yeah they could do more

284
00:10:35,509 --> 00:10:33,480
stuff than we did but I need a whole

285
00:10:37,250 --> 00:10:35,519
scenario a whole story that makes sense

286
00:10:39,610 --> 00:10:37,260
that includes that element that's the

287
00:10:42,470 --> 00:10:39,620
harder part so I think when most other

288
00:10:44,810 --> 00:10:42,480
academics are saying this sounds kind of

289
00:10:46,790 --> 00:10:44,820
crazy it's the whole package that

290
00:10:48,710 --> 00:10:46,800
they're responding to

291
00:10:50,630 --> 00:10:48,720
so they're looking for the context to

292
00:10:52,610 --> 00:10:50,640
fleshing out into before that's not a

293
00:10:54,769 --> 00:10:52,620
conversation I can have and that's where

294
00:10:56,329 --> 00:10:54,779
it's better people I can't have that

295
00:10:58,310 --> 00:10:56,339
conversation right now if you want we

296
00:10:59,810 --> 00:10:58,320
can talk about it yeah well do you know

297
00:11:01,790 --> 00:10:59,820
what I've got some stuff that will come

298
00:11:03,290 --> 00:11:01,800
to that a bit more later on so we'll

299
00:11:04,910 --> 00:11:03,300
park that because I do want to get to

300
00:11:06,829 --> 00:11:04,920
talking about your own work at the

301
00:11:09,470 --> 00:11:06,839
moment and in your conversation with Lex

302
00:11:11,569 --> 00:11:09,480
Friedman but was fascinating like I said

303
00:11:13,670 --> 00:11:11,579
I used the term lemon some of the more

304
00:11:16,310 --> 00:11:13,680
mathematical conversations and equations

305
00:11:18,470 --> 00:11:16,320
went a bit over my head I like to think

306
00:11:19,670 --> 00:11:18,480
I understood the gist of what was being

307
00:11:21,290 --> 00:11:19,680
discussed

308
00:11:22,970 --> 00:11:21,300
um I really like the way you broke some

309
00:11:25,130 --> 00:11:22,980
of that conversation down though it

310
00:11:26,569 --> 00:11:25,140
didn't come across as condescending and

311
00:11:28,670 --> 00:11:26,579
that's something I think even Lex

312
00:11:30,350 --> 00:11:28,680
himself commented on early in the

313
00:11:32,569 --> 00:11:30,360
interview that he appreciated how you

314
00:11:35,630 --> 00:11:32,579
you spoke about these terms and ideas

315
00:11:37,130 --> 00:11:35,640
and you know not not afraid to to go

316
00:11:39,290 --> 00:11:37,140
into some conversations that others

317
00:11:43,490 --> 00:11:39,300
might stay away from can I ask you to

318
00:11:47,030 --> 00:11:43,500
first off explain the term grab a alien

319
00:11:49,069 --> 00:11:47,040
sure so when we look up in the sky

320
00:11:50,210 --> 00:11:49,079
the universe looks empty

321
00:11:51,949 --> 00:11:50,220
and

322
00:11:53,870 --> 00:11:51,959
we can draw some conclusions from that

323
00:11:55,910 --> 00:11:53,880
that's data

324
00:11:58,910 --> 00:11:55,920
it's data about

325
00:12:01,370 --> 00:11:58,920
one kind of alien but not another and I

326
00:12:04,069 --> 00:12:01,380
want to distinguish the two so I will

327
00:12:05,810 --> 00:12:04,079
say it's data about the loud but not the

328
00:12:10,910 --> 00:12:05,820
quiet aliens

329
00:12:12,829 --> 00:12:10,920
away they small they're staying small

330
00:12:13,730 --> 00:12:12,839
they don't last long they're not doing

331
00:12:15,590 --> 00:12:13,740
much

332
00:12:18,410 --> 00:12:15,600
they're really hard to see

333
00:12:21,470 --> 00:12:18,420
so a big empty universe is consistent

334
00:12:23,329 --> 00:12:21,480
with a lot of quiet aliens out there

335
00:12:25,730 --> 00:12:23,339
however there's another kind of alien

336
00:12:28,370 --> 00:12:25,740
this is an alien which once it appears

337
00:12:31,009 --> 00:12:28,380
starts to grow expand rapidly and then

338
00:12:33,889 --> 00:12:31,019
in the volume it touches it changes that

339
00:12:35,389 --> 00:12:33,899
volume makes a big difference

340
00:12:37,129 --> 00:12:35,399
that's the sort of thing life is done

341
00:12:39,050 --> 00:12:37,139
here on Earth and humans are doing on

342
00:12:40,190 --> 00:12:39,060
earth that is when we go places we

343
00:12:41,150 --> 00:12:40,200
change things and we make them look

344
00:12:44,269 --> 00:12:41,160
different

345
00:12:46,370 --> 00:12:44,279
uh that's the kind of life and

346
00:12:48,769 --> 00:12:46,380
civilization that we don't see in the

347
00:12:51,530 --> 00:12:48,779
universe and so loud aliens are what

348
00:12:54,350 --> 00:12:51,540
we're not seeing and that's the data to

349
00:12:57,230 --> 00:12:54,360
think about so grabby aliens is our

350
00:13:01,129 --> 00:12:57,240
specific mathematical model of this more

351
00:13:02,990 --> 00:13:01,139
general idea of loud aliens so grabby is

352
00:13:05,750 --> 00:13:03,000
to connote this idea that they go out

353
00:13:08,150 --> 00:13:05,760
and grab stuff and they change it

354
00:13:10,430 --> 00:13:08,160
and that we can confront with our

355
00:13:12,230 --> 00:13:10,440
observations because that would make a

356
00:13:15,410 --> 00:13:12,240
big physical difference

357
00:13:18,050 --> 00:13:15,420
and by grabby do you mean there'd be

358
00:13:19,910 --> 00:13:18,060
more likely to potentially be hostile or

359
00:13:22,790 --> 00:13:19,920
aggressive in their actions

360
00:13:25,009 --> 00:13:22,800
not by definition but you might guess

361
00:13:27,769 --> 00:13:25,019
that perhaps but the key thing about

362
00:13:28,790 --> 00:13:27,779
them is they are grabbing and changing

363
00:13:31,129 --> 00:13:28,800
things

364
00:13:33,550 --> 00:13:31,139
right they aren't just visitors they're

365
00:13:38,030 --> 00:13:33,560
not zookeepers they're not games men

366
00:13:40,490 --> 00:13:38,040
they are developers and colonizers and

367
00:13:42,230 --> 00:13:40,500
Changers they go out into the universe

368
00:13:44,930 --> 00:13:42,240
and they take things and they do things

369
00:13:46,610 --> 00:13:44,940
with them uh that don't aren't

370
00:13:48,829 --> 00:13:46,620
consistent with their original uses and

371
00:13:51,110 --> 00:13:48,839
purposes so one key idea of a gravity

372
00:13:53,329 --> 00:13:51,120
aliens if if grabby aliens had come here

373
00:13:55,730 --> 00:13:53,339
in the past

374
00:13:57,829 --> 00:13:55,740
we couldn't be here now

375
00:14:00,230 --> 00:13:57,839
they would have taken Earth and

376
00:14:01,310 --> 00:14:00,240
everything around us and used it for

377
00:14:04,129 --> 00:14:01,320
their purposes

378
00:14:07,610 --> 00:14:04,139
and that would be noticeable

379
00:14:09,850 --> 00:14:07,620
when you say they also change things is

380
00:14:12,350 --> 00:14:09,860
there any potential that grab it aliens

381
00:14:13,730 --> 00:14:12,360
could have visited and let's use an

382
00:14:15,949 --> 00:14:13,740
example and this goes a little bit

383
00:14:18,170 --> 00:14:15,959
ancient alien desk but the classic one

384
00:14:19,610 --> 00:14:18,180
is aliens built the pyramids and we

385
00:14:21,350 --> 00:14:19,620
don't have to get into that conversation

386
00:14:23,689 --> 00:14:21,360
that's for other other shows and whatnot

387
00:14:26,150 --> 00:14:23,699
but is it possible they could have come

388
00:14:29,269 --> 00:14:26,160
here and interfered in a way that did

389
00:14:31,670 --> 00:14:29,279
benefit them and they're no longer here

390
00:14:34,009 --> 00:14:31,680
of course that would be possible but

391
00:14:35,870 --> 00:14:34,019
that wouldn't be consistent with the

392
00:14:39,050 --> 00:14:35,880
kind of grabby aliens we're thinking of

393
00:14:42,290 --> 00:14:39,060
so think of in the United States say as

394
00:14:44,750 --> 00:14:42,300
Europeans spread across the West right

395
00:14:46,189 --> 00:14:44,760
they weren't just making taking some

396
00:14:48,530 --> 00:14:46,199
notes as they went along and maybe

397
00:14:52,009 --> 00:14:48,540
composing a song or two and leaving some

398
00:14:55,069 --> 00:14:52,019
markers they made farms they cut down

399
00:14:57,530 --> 00:14:55,079
trees they you know they made roads

400
00:14:58,910 --> 00:14:57,540
airports I mean that building cities

401
00:15:01,970 --> 00:14:58,920
right

402
00:15:04,610 --> 00:15:01,980
that is they change things because those

403
00:15:07,189 --> 00:15:04,620
new versions were more useful to them uh

404
00:15:08,329 --> 00:15:07,199
and so if aliens had come here doing

405
00:15:10,069 --> 00:15:08,339
that

406
00:15:13,490 --> 00:15:10,079
we would presumably see a lot more

407
00:15:15,530 --> 00:15:13,500
differences like changing a monument on

408
00:15:18,050 --> 00:15:15,540
Earth or two over the course of the last

409
00:15:20,810 --> 00:15:18,060
10 000 years would be a pretty minor

410
00:15:23,329 --> 00:15:20,820
effect right we're talking big things

411
00:15:25,670 --> 00:15:23,339
like taking apart the moon that's the

412
00:15:28,850 --> 00:15:25,680
kind of big thing we're talking about

413
00:15:30,769 --> 00:15:28,860
okay I'm following you now and and the

414
00:15:33,230 --> 00:15:30,779
difference between those loud and quiet

415
00:15:35,329 --> 00:15:33,240
civilizations is quite vast is there a

416
00:15:38,629 --> 00:15:35,339
moment within a civilization's

417
00:15:41,990 --> 00:15:38,639
development that it can almost decide to

418
00:15:43,490 --> 00:15:42,000
be a louder civilization or is it

419
00:15:45,650 --> 00:15:43,500
something that can just happen what's

420
00:15:48,949 --> 00:15:45,660
what's the deal there so presumably

421
00:15:51,470 --> 00:15:48,959
every civilization starts out quiet

422
00:15:53,949 --> 00:15:51,480
and then they may make a transition to

423
00:15:56,449 --> 00:15:53,959
becoming loud and almost by definition

424
00:15:59,389 --> 00:15:56,459
once they become loud they can't become

425
00:16:01,670 --> 00:15:59,399
quiet again that is a loud civilization

426
00:16:04,189 --> 00:16:01,680
would be spread out across a wide space

427
00:16:06,230 --> 00:16:04,199
with lots of different parts and even if

428
00:16:08,090 --> 00:16:06,240
some of the parts say chose to become

429
00:16:09,889 --> 00:16:08,100
quiet again the other parts would

430
00:16:11,329 --> 00:16:09,899
continue on to be loud and they would

431
00:16:13,670 --> 00:16:11,339
continue to grow and spread and the

432
00:16:15,829 --> 00:16:13,680
whole thing would continue to be loud

433
00:16:17,269 --> 00:16:15,839
so then the question is will there be a

434
00:16:20,569 --> 00:16:17,279
point in time where our descendants

435
00:16:23,210 --> 00:16:20,579
choose in some way to to become loud or

436
00:16:24,829 --> 00:16:23,220
not and I do think that's probably the

437
00:16:27,170 --> 00:16:24,839
biggest Choice our descendants will face

438
00:16:28,370 --> 00:16:27,180
in the long run and I'm trying to write

439
00:16:30,710 --> 00:16:28,380
a book about that idea

440
00:16:32,449 --> 00:16:30,720
and that's that's very interesting would

441
00:16:33,829 --> 00:16:32,459
you say that we're in the very early

442
00:16:36,530 --> 00:16:33,839
stages

443
00:16:39,470 --> 00:16:36,540
of trying to be loud sending probes out

444
00:16:42,170 --> 00:16:39,480
early for us to be able to become loud

445
00:16:43,910 --> 00:16:42,180
that is probably the key moment is when

446
00:16:47,210 --> 00:16:43,920
it's we're possible to send an

447
00:16:49,189 --> 00:16:47,220
Interstellar Colony out which could then

448
00:16:51,949 --> 00:16:49,199
reproduce itself

449
00:16:54,050 --> 00:16:51,959
once that happens on any substantial

450
00:16:56,269 --> 00:16:54,060
scale then the cat's out of the bag and

451
00:16:58,610 --> 00:16:56,279
it would be too late to stop it

452
00:16:59,629 --> 00:16:58,620
uh but before any colonies have been

453
00:17:03,949 --> 00:16:59,639
sent out

454
00:17:06,470 --> 00:17:03,959
uh then it's still possible to stop that

455
00:17:08,990 --> 00:17:06,480
and again is that talking about steps

456
00:17:11,929 --> 00:17:09,000
Way Beyond us sending a few people to

457
00:17:13,669 --> 00:17:11,939
Mars for example absolutely that is you

458
00:17:15,230 --> 00:17:13,679
have to go to other stars

459
00:17:17,569 --> 00:17:15,240
and you have to send something there

460
00:17:19,309 --> 00:17:17,579
that when it gets there could start a

461
00:17:21,529 --> 00:17:19,319
new civilization there

462
00:17:23,929 --> 00:17:21,539
that's a lot more than just a metal box

463
00:17:26,329 --> 00:17:23,939
that takes some pictures

464
00:17:28,610 --> 00:17:26,339
interesting do you think in sending out

465
00:17:30,650 --> 00:17:28,620
these probes in radio waves that we do

466
00:17:32,210 --> 00:17:30,660
to the solar system do you think that's

467
00:17:34,430 --> 00:17:32,220
a wise idea

468
00:17:37,669 --> 00:17:34,440
and announcing ourselves to the you know

469
00:17:42,590 --> 00:17:40,070
I would be cautious about that but my

470
00:17:45,470 --> 00:17:42,600
grabby aliens analysis says it probably

471
00:17:47,690 --> 00:17:45,480
won't hurt once you see the conclusions

472
00:17:50,570 --> 00:17:47,700
of our analysis I'll just tell you they

473
00:17:53,029 --> 00:17:50,580
basic we basically estimate that

474
00:17:54,590 --> 00:17:53,039
you know intelligent aliens that can

475
00:17:56,630 --> 00:17:54,600
become gravity and that do become

476
00:17:58,669 --> 00:17:56,640
gravity appear roughly once per million

477
00:18:00,110 --> 00:17:58,679
galaxies

478
00:18:01,730 --> 00:18:00,120
and

479
00:18:03,770 --> 00:18:01,740
they are at the moment filling up

480
00:18:05,330 --> 00:18:03,780
roughly half the universe we can't see

481
00:18:08,630 --> 00:18:05,340
them because they're expanding at almost

482
00:18:10,490 --> 00:18:08,640
the speed of light and once we get into

483
00:18:12,710 --> 00:18:10,500
a similar mode we would meet them in

484
00:18:14,570 --> 00:18:12,720
roughly a billion years

485
00:18:16,789 --> 00:18:14,580
that's the parameters we're talking

486
00:18:19,970 --> 00:18:16,799
about so the nearest ones according to

487
00:18:22,370 --> 00:18:19,980
this Theory are a really long way away

488
00:18:24,890 --> 00:18:22,380
now those those Advanced aliens that are

489
00:18:26,810 --> 00:18:24,900
expanding there's a quote at the top of

490
00:18:29,510 --> 00:18:26,820
the page if you go to grabit aliens.com

491
00:18:31,610 --> 00:18:29,520
which says Advanced aliens really are

492
00:18:33,470 --> 00:18:31,620
out there and we have enough data to see

493
00:18:36,289 --> 00:18:33,480
roughly where they are in space and time

494
00:18:38,690 --> 00:18:36,299
and when we will see or meet them that's

495
00:18:40,370 --> 00:18:38,700
a very confident statement what makes

496
00:18:41,990 --> 00:18:40,380
you so confident that you know that

497
00:18:44,690 --> 00:18:42,000
especially those first words Advanced

498
00:18:47,750 --> 00:18:44,700
aliens really are out there

499
00:18:50,330 --> 00:18:47,760
so it's a more likely than not level of

500
00:18:53,930 --> 00:18:50,340
confidence which I think is news it's

501
00:18:55,130 --> 00:18:53,940
not a 99.99 level of confidence just to

502
00:18:58,070 --> 00:18:55,140
be clear

503
00:18:59,510 --> 00:18:58,080
I I'd say what we have is a three

504
00:19:01,549 --> 00:18:59,520
parameter model

505
00:19:02,450 --> 00:19:01,559
where each of the parameters is fit to

506
00:19:05,990 --> 00:19:02,460
data

507
00:19:07,730 --> 00:19:06,000
that suggests you need to believe in

508
00:19:09,890 --> 00:19:07,740
this model

509
00:19:12,169 --> 00:19:09,900
and that key piece of data is our

510
00:19:15,230 --> 00:19:12,179
current date

511
00:19:17,390 --> 00:19:15,240
so to elaborate

512
00:19:19,730 --> 00:19:17,400
um if you just think about

513
00:19:21,909 --> 00:19:19,740
Advance life like us appearing on a

514
00:19:24,529 --> 00:19:21,919
planet like ours or any sort of planet

515
00:19:26,750 --> 00:19:24,539
we have a simple statistical model that

516
00:19:29,150 --> 00:19:26,760
we can use to predict when that would

517
00:19:31,190 --> 00:19:29,160
happen in the history of the universe

518
00:19:33,230 --> 00:19:31,200
the simple statistical model says that

519
00:19:34,730 --> 00:19:33,240
it's more likely to happen on long-lived

520
00:19:36,890 --> 00:19:34,740
planets

521
00:19:39,409 --> 00:19:36,900
and much more likely to happen near the

522
00:19:41,870 --> 00:19:39,419
end of the lifetime of those planets in

523
00:19:46,270 --> 00:19:41,880
fact there's a power law that suggests

524
00:19:50,090 --> 00:19:46,280
you know toward the last 10 or something

525
00:19:51,350 --> 00:19:50,100
most stars in the universe will last for

526
00:19:53,450 --> 00:19:51,360
trillions of years

527
00:19:55,610 --> 00:19:53,460
the the average lifespan is like five

528
00:19:58,730 --> 00:19:55,620
trillion years so the average Planet

529
00:20:02,390 --> 00:19:58,740
lifetime is like five trillion years

530
00:20:05,690 --> 00:20:02,400
we are now at 14 billion years a tiny

531
00:20:07,310 --> 00:20:05,700
fraction of that average time so the The

532
00:20:09,770 --> 00:20:07,320
Simple Theory we have about when

533
00:20:12,350 --> 00:20:09,780
Advanced life should appear

534
00:20:13,310 --> 00:20:12,360
would be trillions of years in the

535
00:20:15,310 --> 00:20:13,320
future

536
00:20:17,810 --> 00:20:15,320
but here we are appearing very early

537
00:20:20,270 --> 00:20:17,820
that says something is wrong about that

538
00:20:22,070 --> 00:20:20,280
simple analysis and we say the key thing

539
00:20:23,870 --> 00:20:22,080
that we think is wrong is that that

540
00:20:27,110 --> 00:20:23,880
analysis assumes the universe would sit

541
00:20:29,090 --> 00:20:27,120
and stay empty and wait until some

542
00:20:31,730 --> 00:20:29,100
Advanced life finally appeared

543
00:20:33,710 --> 00:20:31,740
we say that instead Advanced life is

544
00:20:35,390 --> 00:20:33,720
popping up all the time right now and is

545
00:20:37,370 --> 00:20:35,400
filling the universe and within a

546
00:20:39,770 --> 00:20:37,380
billion or so Years it'll all be full

547
00:20:42,590 --> 00:20:39,780
and then it's too late to appear

548
00:20:44,810 --> 00:20:42,600
so we had to appear now early because we

549
00:20:46,789 --> 00:20:44,820
had to appear before the deadline

550
00:20:48,590 --> 00:20:46,799
you can only appear before the deadline

551
00:20:50,149 --> 00:20:48,600
and that's why we are here now but

552
00:20:51,529 --> 00:20:50,159
that's why we have to believe they're

553
00:20:54,590 --> 00:20:51,539
out there right now

554
00:20:56,390 --> 00:20:54,600
the clock date the date on the clock

555
00:20:57,950 --> 00:20:56,400
with respect to the immerse is the piece

556
00:21:00,110 --> 00:20:57,960
of evidence that tells you they're out

557
00:21:02,810 --> 00:21:00,120
there because otherwise we wouldn't be

558
00:21:05,390 --> 00:21:02,820
here now we'd be here much later

559
00:21:07,669 --> 00:21:05,400
and those Advanced civilizations again

560
00:21:09,230 --> 00:21:07,679
you mentioned it it's towards the end of

561
00:21:11,630 --> 00:21:09,240
their planet's potentially habitable

562
00:21:13,610 --> 00:21:11,640
time would it be then that it was

563
00:21:16,010 --> 00:21:13,620
necessity that potentially drives these

564
00:21:17,930 --> 00:21:16,020
civilizations to to expanding out into

565
00:21:21,169 --> 00:21:17,940
the stars as much as it would be

566
00:21:23,630 --> 00:21:21,179
technological capabilities

567
00:21:27,169 --> 00:21:23,640
so the key assumption is just some

568
00:21:30,649 --> 00:21:27,179
fraction of civilizations do expand

569
00:21:35,149 --> 00:21:30,659
so we don't need really to say why

570
00:21:37,490 --> 00:21:35,159
we can say some things about why uh the

571
00:21:39,770 --> 00:21:37,500
most the simplest reason why they might

572
00:21:42,230 --> 00:21:39,780
expand is that they do not have a center

573
00:21:44,450 --> 00:21:42,240
that controls them so if they are

574
00:21:48,289 --> 00:21:44,460
decentralized composed of many parts

575
00:21:49,970 --> 00:21:48,299
then if any one part expands the net

576
00:21:53,029 --> 00:21:49,980
effect is expansion

577
00:21:55,490 --> 00:21:53,039
so in order to not expand they really

578
00:21:57,529 --> 00:21:55,500
need to prevent all of their parts from

579
00:21:59,450 --> 00:21:57,539
expanding and the more advanced they are

580
00:22:01,250 --> 00:21:59,460
the more parts those are

581
00:22:02,810 --> 00:22:01,260
you know and early on there might be 10

582
00:22:04,310 --> 00:22:02,820
parts any which could do it later on

583
00:22:05,810 --> 00:22:04,320
there might be a trillion Parts any

584
00:22:07,789 --> 00:22:05,820
which could do it

585
00:22:09,770 --> 00:22:07,799
so the simplest story about why

586
00:22:11,990 --> 00:22:09,780
expansion would happen is just because

587
00:22:13,430 --> 00:22:12,000
it only takes one part

588
00:22:16,070 --> 00:22:13,440
to make it happen

589
00:22:18,890 --> 00:22:16,080
uh so if if our descendants say fill the

590
00:22:20,690 --> 00:22:18,900
solar system with a vast economy and it

591
00:22:22,669 --> 00:22:20,700
only takes one part and a trillion of

592
00:22:24,770 --> 00:22:22,679
that economy to send off a probe to

593
00:22:26,930 --> 00:22:24,780
another star and that's enough to start

594
00:22:30,169 --> 00:22:26,940
this expansion this colonization wave

595
00:22:32,029 --> 00:22:30,179
then in order for it not to happen our

596
00:22:35,810 --> 00:22:32,039
civilization has to find a way to

597
00:22:37,669 --> 00:22:35,820
prevent any part from doing that

598
00:22:39,289 --> 00:22:37,679
and that's the simplest reason why they

599
00:22:41,029 --> 00:22:39,299
might now of course they might want to

600
00:22:44,210 --> 00:22:41,039
and then choose to

601
00:22:46,669 --> 00:22:44,220
or they might want not to but just fail

602
00:22:48,649 --> 00:22:46,679
to work hard enough to prevent it

603
00:22:50,330 --> 00:22:48,659
but it's really hard to prevent it once

604
00:22:52,430 --> 00:22:50,340
you're big enough

605
00:22:55,430 --> 00:22:52,440
no I heard you use the example and

606
00:22:57,169 --> 00:22:55,440
discuss about pants panspermia siblings

607
00:22:58,850 --> 00:22:57,179
yes and you've mentioned the word

608
00:23:00,830 --> 00:22:58,860
descendants there can you just tell us

609
00:23:02,750 --> 00:23:00,840
about the term panspermia siblings and

610
00:23:04,430 --> 00:23:02,760
what that could mean

611
00:23:06,830 --> 00:23:04,440
well so the key ideas in our simple

612
00:23:09,470 --> 00:23:06,840
Rabbi aliens model the nearest aliens

613
00:23:10,850 --> 00:23:09,480
are far away they appear once per

614
00:23:13,010 --> 00:23:10,860
million galaxies

615
00:23:15,049 --> 00:23:13,020
and that makes it crazy unlikely that

616
00:23:16,970 --> 00:23:15,059
there's anybody nearby

617
00:23:18,950 --> 00:23:16,980
so in order to actually make it

618
00:23:22,190 --> 00:23:18,960
believable that there are aliens nearby

619
00:23:23,630 --> 00:23:22,200
we need to change this model to create

620
00:23:26,870 --> 00:23:23,640
correlation

621
00:23:29,450 --> 00:23:26,880
so that aliens appear near each other

622
00:23:31,909 --> 00:23:29,460
and a simple way to produce correlation

623
00:23:33,350 --> 00:23:31,919
is to say we have siblings

624
00:23:36,409 --> 00:23:33,360
that is

625
00:23:40,549 --> 00:23:36,419
life started in our galaxy on some other

626
00:23:44,990 --> 00:23:43,490
many long ago so our sun started roughly

627
00:23:47,149 --> 00:23:45,000
four and a half billion years ago and

628
00:23:49,130 --> 00:23:47,159
that's when our earth started but since

629
00:23:50,990 --> 00:23:49,140
the universe is 14 billion years that

630
00:23:52,490 --> 00:23:51,000
was almost 10 billion years after the

631
00:23:55,190 --> 00:23:52,500
start of the universe

632
00:23:57,230 --> 00:23:55,200
so you might say well 5 billion years

633
00:23:59,450 --> 00:23:57,240
after the start of the universe say some

634
00:24:02,210 --> 00:23:59,460
other star was formed and around that

635
00:24:04,549 --> 00:24:02,220
some other planet an Eden and life

636
00:24:06,649 --> 00:24:04,559
started on that planet

637
00:24:09,049 --> 00:24:06,659
10 billion years ago

638
00:24:11,090 --> 00:24:09,059
and then life evolved on that planet for

639
00:24:14,510 --> 00:24:11,100
maybe five billion years

640
00:24:16,310 --> 00:24:14,520
and then some rock flew down smashed

641
00:24:18,110 --> 00:24:16,320
into that planet smashed up some other

642
00:24:20,870 --> 00:24:18,120
rocks into the sky and some of those

643
00:24:23,990 --> 00:24:20,880
pieces of rocks had life on them and

644
00:24:26,510 --> 00:24:24,000
those rocks drifted and then landed in

645
00:24:29,029 --> 00:24:26,520
this in the Stellar Nursery that our son

646
00:24:30,830 --> 00:24:29,039
was born in so all stars are basically

647
00:24:33,110 --> 00:24:30,840
born in nurseries

648
00:24:35,269 --> 00:24:33,120
whole clumps of hundreds and thousands

649
00:24:37,130 --> 00:24:35,279
of stars all born at the same place in

650
00:24:39,649 --> 00:24:37,140
the same time close together

651
00:24:41,990 --> 00:24:39,659
and if this rock had seeded had flown

652
00:24:43,909 --> 00:24:42,000
into our Stellar Nursery

653
00:24:45,890 --> 00:24:43,919
that not only could it have landed on

654
00:24:47,570 --> 00:24:45,900
Earth and seeded life on Earth but there

655
00:24:49,610 --> 00:24:47,580
were so many rocks flying around so

656
00:24:51,230 --> 00:24:49,620
close to each other right then that it

657
00:24:52,909 --> 00:24:51,240
plausibly would have been seeded many

658
00:24:55,789 --> 00:24:52,919
other

659
00:24:58,669 --> 00:24:55,799
stars and the planets around them at

660
00:25:00,230 --> 00:24:58,679
that same time in that same place

661
00:25:02,090 --> 00:25:00,240
and then over the last five billion

662
00:25:03,890 --> 00:25:02,100
years those Stars drifted apart and are

663
00:25:05,710 --> 00:25:03,900
now spread all around a ring around the

664
00:25:08,750 --> 00:25:05,720
Galaxy

665
00:25:10,850 --> 00:25:08,760
but that means there's a few thousand

666
00:25:12,470 --> 00:25:10,860
other stars out there that might be

667
00:25:15,110 --> 00:25:12,480
seated with life

668
00:25:17,750 --> 00:25:15,120
from the same source that we got it and

669
00:25:20,570 --> 00:25:17,760
they would be our panspermia siblings

670
00:25:23,210 --> 00:25:20,580
and then one of those could have

671
00:25:24,769 --> 00:25:23,220
achieved our level of Technology before

672
00:25:29,450 --> 00:25:24,779
us

673
00:25:31,430 --> 00:25:29,460
Source where aliens might be coming from

674
00:25:33,769 --> 00:25:31,440
to visit us

675
00:25:35,990 --> 00:25:33,779
while still explaining why the rest of

676
00:25:37,250 --> 00:25:36,000
the universe looks completely empty

677
00:25:39,230 --> 00:25:37,260
so

678
00:25:40,970 --> 00:25:39,240
if we're going to try to explain how it

679
00:25:42,110 --> 00:25:40,980
is that there might be aliens visiting

680
00:25:44,149 --> 00:25:42,120
us now

681
00:25:45,110 --> 00:25:44,159
we have a number of puzzling things to

682
00:25:47,870 --> 00:25:45,120
explain

683
00:25:49,789 --> 00:25:47,880
one of which is if there's aliens out

684
00:25:52,010 --> 00:25:49,799
there that close to us in space and time

685
00:25:54,049 --> 00:25:52,020
why isn't the universe full of them why

686
00:25:56,149 --> 00:25:54,059
does everything look so dead and empty

687
00:25:58,190 --> 00:25:56,159
so one way to do that is to create this

688
00:26:02,450 --> 00:25:58,200
correlation yes life appears very rarely

689
00:26:05,269 --> 00:26:02,460
but it appears in little chunks

690
00:26:07,730 --> 00:26:05,279
or life is in several places at the same

691
00:26:10,909 --> 00:26:07,740
time and place because it has a common

692
00:26:12,769 --> 00:26:10,919
origin so panspermia siblings would be a

693
00:26:16,490 --> 00:26:12,779
key hypothesis we would need to invoke

694
00:26:18,350 --> 00:26:16,500
to explain say UFOs as aliens the idea

695
00:26:20,330 --> 00:26:18,360
that even though we look out and we see

696
00:26:22,190 --> 00:26:20,340
all this dead empty Universe millions

697
00:26:24,769 --> 00:26:22,200
and trillions of galaxies all empty as

698
00:26:26,330 --> 00:26:24,779
far as we can see now

699
00:26:29,029 --> 00:26:26,340
that's consistent with there being

700
00:26:31,130 --> 00:26:29,039
aliens near us now because they had a

701
00:26:33,529 --> 00:26:31,140
common origin with us so there aren't

702
00:26:35,330 --> 00:26:33,539
very many of them there's just maybe one

703
00:26:37,190 --> 00:26:35,340
maybe in the next million galaxies

704
00:26:38,450 --> 00:26:37,200
there's just this one other alien

705
00:26:40,789 --> 00:26:38,460
civilization

706
00:26:43,549 --> 00:26:40,799
the ones that are visiting

707
00:26:46,430 --> 00:26:43,559
and you also discussed the idea that if

708
00:26:49,010 --> 00:26:46,440
that was the case potentially these

709
00:26:52,269 --> 00:26:49,020
civilizations albeit having the ability

710
00:26:55,070 --> 00:26:52,279
to travel could be coming to other quiet

711
00:26:57,110 --> 00:26:55,080
civilizations and encouraging us to stay

712
00:27:01,070 --> 00:26:57,120
quiet

713
00:27:03,230 --> 00:27:01,080
well so we have to ask what else do we

714
00:27:05,029 --> 00:27:03,240
need to assume to make this hypothesis

715
00:27:07,730 --> 00:27:05,039
work so first of all we assume

716
00:27:10,610 --> 00:27:07,740
panspermia siblings secondly we assume

717
00:27:13,789 --> 00:27:10,620
that one of those planets achieved our

718
00:27:15,769 --> 00:27:13,799
level of civilization before us

719
00:27:17,510 --> 00:27:15,779
from that we have to guess it's probably

720
00:27:19,010 --> 00:27:17,520
at least 100 million years ago that

721
00:27:21,769 --> 00:27:19,020
happened

722
00:27:24,470 --> 00:27:21,779
and so they've been at our level of

723
00:27:25,970 --> 00:27:24,480
technology for 100 million years within

724
00:27:27,950 --> 00:27:25,980
our same galaxy

725
00:27:30,710 --> 00:27:27,960
and right there that makes a problem

726
00:27:32,750 --> 00:27:30,720
which is it would have only taken them a

727
00:27:34,970 --> 00:27:32,760
million years at most to fill our galaxy

728
00:27:36,830 --> 00:27:34,980
and change it all if they had been so

729
00:27:40,430 --> 00:27:36,840
unclocked

730
00:27:42,649 --> 00:27:40,440
but by assumption they didn't do that

731
00:27:46,730 --> 00:27:42,659
so we'll need to add to the scenario one

732
00:27:49,909 --> 00:27:46,740
more element which is they chose not to

733
00:27:52,370 --> 00:27:49,919
they for some reason decided not to

734
00:27:55,250 --> 00:27:52,380
expand and fill the Galaxy and change it

735
00:27:57,169 --> 00:27:55,260
they had an ecological or religious or

736
00:27:58,850 --> 00:27:57,179
other concerns we could talk about that

737
00:28:01,370 --> 00:27:58,860
more if you want why a civilization

738
00:28:03,649 --> 00:28:01,380
might not want to allow expansion but

739
00:28:05,870 --> 00:28:03,659
they chose not to allow their

740
00:28:08,029 --> 00:28:05,880
civilization to expand

741
00:28:10,250 --> 00:28:08,039
and they succeeded at that

742
00:28:12,830 --> 00:28:10,260
actually pretty difficult task

743
00:28:14,570 --> 00:28:12,840
yet they survived so one way to succeed

744
00:28:16,730 --> 00:28:14,580
is just kill themselves and they did not

745
00:28:20,110 --> 00:28:16,740
kill themselves they did not expand they

746
00:28:22,850 --> 00:28:20,120
succeeded at keeping themselves Limited

747
00:28:24,289 --> 00:28:22,860
and preventing this vast expansion and

748
00:28:26,090 --> 00:28:24,299
change that so something else we'll have

749
00:28:27,830 --> 00:28:26,100
to assume about them in order to make

750
00:28:29,990 --> 00:28:27,840
the scenario work

751
00:28:32,330 --> 00:28:30,000
panspermia siblings Plus

752
00:28:35,269 --> 00:28:32,340
a anti-growth

753
00:28:37,430 --> 00:28:35,279
you know policy of the aliens

754
00:28:40,310 --> 00:28:37,440
but once we assume that they were

755
00:28:42,590 --> 00:28:40,320
anti-growth then for free we get an

756
00:28:44,990 --> 00:28:42,600
explanation for why they're here

757
00:28:46,549 --> 00:28:45,000
right because they have this policy

758
00:28:47,810 --> 00:28:46,559
against growth they have been preventing

759
00:28:50,570 --> 00:28:47,820
people going out from their own

760
00:28:53,090 --> 00:28:50,580
civilization to cause growth and now

761
00:28:55,250 --> 00:28:53,100
they see us in their telescopes

762
00:28:57,169 --> 00:28:55,260
and they can draw the conclusion we

763
00:28:59,810 --> 00:28:57,179
might violate the rule

764
00:29:01,909 --> 00:28:59,820
we are on a path to choosing to expand

765
00:29:04,490 --> 00:29:01,919
that might be one of the things we do

766
00:29:06,590 --> 00:29:04,500
and if they have this rule that prevents

767
00:29:09,350 --> 00:29:06,600
them from expanding then they will want

768
00:29:11,930 --> 00:29:09,360
this rule applied to us they want us to

769
00:29:14,330 --> 00:29:11,940
not expand as well otherwise we

770
00:29:16,370 --> 00:29:14,340
you know prove we you know make

771
00:29:19,490 --> 00:29:16,380
irrelevant to their rule

772
00:29:21,529 --> 00:29:19,500
if we don't follow the same rule so then

773
00:29:23,630 --> 00:29:21,539
we can add explanation for why they are

774
00:29:25,010 --> 00:29:23,640
here they made an exception for their

775
00:29:26,570 --> 00:29:25,020
General policy or expanding I mean

776
00:29:28,490 --> 00:29:26,580
wherever they came from It's a Long Way

777
00:29:30,049 --> 00:29:28,500
to come here they surely can't be

778
00:29:31,909 --> 00:29:30,059
allowing very many trips like that or

779
00:29:34,669 --> 00:29:31,919
that would risk breaking their rule

780
00:29:37,789 --> 00:29:34,679
right any one vacationing trip along the

781
00:29:39,590 --> 00:29:37,799
way could somehow uh you know go Rogue

782
00:29:41,389 --> 00:29:39,600
and fill the universe

783
00:29:43,310 --> 00:29:41,399
so they must not allow very many

784
00:29:45,710 --> 00:29:43,320
vacationing trips from their Origins

785
00:29:47,510 --> 00:29:45,720
right but this one Expedition they have

786
00:29:49,789 --> 00:29:47,520
apparently allowed and this would be a

787
00:29:53,029 --> 00:29:49,799
reason this is an unusual priority

788
00:29:55,490 --> 00:29:53,039
Because unless they come here they they

789
00:29:57,950 --> 00:29:55,500
may not you know succeed in keeping this

790
00:29:59,630 --> 00:29:57,960
Rule now we could also conclude they

791
00:30:01,730 --> 00:29:59,640
have a simple way to make this rule be

792
00:30:04,190 --> 00:30:01,740
enforced is just to destroy us

793
00:30:05,930 --> 00:30:04,200
no doubt 100 million years more advanced

794
00:30:07,130 --> 00:30:05,940
than us that would have been easy they

795
00:30:09,710 --> 00:30:07,140
could have just sent something here to

796
00:30:12,049 --> 00:30:09,720
blow us up wipe us out fold on full stop

797
00:30:14,450 --> 00:30:12,059
right so but we can look around and see

798
00:30:16,130 --> 00:30:14,460
we are not destroyed so we can add one

799
00:30:19,010 --> 00:30:16,140
more thing we know about them they are

800
00:30:22,010 --> 00:30:19,020
reluctant to just kill us off

801
00:30:25,070 --> 00:30:22,020
they'd rather we adopted

802
00:30:28,190 --> 00:30:25,080
this policy voluntarily

803
00:30:31,070 --> 00:30:28,200
uh without muscle fuss or struggle

804
00:30:35,630 --> 00:30:31,080
so they're here to persuade us

805
00:30:38,570 --> 00:30:35,640
not just force us to follow their rule

806
00:30:40,490 --> 00:30:38,580
and as a hypothesis as to why that would

807
00:30:43,190 --> 00:30:40,500
be because as a species we always think

808
00:30:44,810 --> 00:30:43,200
about advancement and growth and we want

809
00:30:46,370 --> 00:30:44,820
to get to this planet and then from that

810
00:30:48,110 --> 00:30:46,380
planet to this you know outside the

811
00:30:49,430 --> 00:30:48,120
solar system then into other as you say

812
00:30:51,409 --> 00:30:49,440
Interstellar travel would be an

813
00:30:54,350 --> 00:30:51,419
incredible dream to achieve

814
00:30:56,029 --> 00:30:54,360
why would a civilization in your opinion

815
00:30:58,310 --> 00:30:56,039
What's the hypothesis that they would

816
00:31:01,130 --> 00:30:58,320
get to a point and think no we have to

817
00:31:03,169 --> 00:31:01,140
stop here well we can already now see

818
00:31:05,870 --> 00:31:03,179
when people discuss this idea of

819
00:31:08,870 --> 00:31:05,880
interstellar colonization many of us

820
00:31:10,909 --> 00:31:08,880
have doubts and concerns and advise

821
00:31:13,370 --> 00:31:10,919
against it that's something we already

822
00:31:16,850 --> 00:31:13,380
see now so we don't have to hypothesize

823
00:31:20,930 --> 00:31:16,860
it we can just ask why are people now

824
00:31:23,690 --> 00:31:20,940
warning us against allowing expansion

825
00:31:26,509 --> 00:31:23,700
so there are several different reasons

826
00:31:28,850 --> 00:31:26,519
so one is that

827
00:31:32,990 --> 00:31:28,860
this expansion would

828
00:31:36,649 --> 00:31:33,000
continue competition and conflict

829
00:31:38,870 --> 00:31:36,659
and that would produce Evolution and so

830
00:31:41,870 --> 00:31:38,880
our descendants in this process would

831
00:31:45,049 --> 00:31:41,880
change they would no longer be like us

832
00:31:46,610 --> 00:31:45,059
so you might dislike this idea that our

833
00:31:47,990 --> 00:31:46,620
distant descendants would become very

834
00:31:50,210 --> 00:31:48,000
different from us

835
00:31:52,130 --> 00:31:50,220
you could think they are then aliens and

836
00:31:54,350 --> 00:31:52,140
of no value and and

837
00:31:56,509 --> 00:31:54,360
I'll think that we should disown them

838
00:31:59,389 --> 00:31:56,519
and you might think well we want to

839
00:32:01,789 --> 00:31:59,399
prevent our descendants from

840
00:32:04,009 --> 00:32:01,799
um coming so alien

841
00:32:06,169 --> 00:32:04,019
and so one way to do that would be to

842
00:32:07,789 --> 00:32:06,179
control reproduction and prevent

843
00:32:11,509 --> 00:32:07,799
expansion

844
00:32:13,549 --> 00:32:11,519
so we may want to both limit who could

845
00:32:15,529 --> 00:32:13,559
leave the solar system and also limit

846
00:32:16,850 --> 00:32:15,539
the kind of changes that can happen here

847
00:32:19,009 --> 00:32:16,860
within the solar system people are

848
00:32:21,529 --> 00:32:19,019
already thinking about some people say

849
00:32:23,149 --> 00:32:21,539
nuts become transhumanous let's change

850
00:32:24,350 --> 00:32:23,159
our minds and change our body and other

851
00:32:26,330 --> 00:32:24,360
people are saying no no that would be

852
00:32:27,889 --> 00:32:26,340
terrible let's make laws against those

853
00:32:29,570 --> 00:32:27,899
sorts of changes

854
00:32:32,509 --> 00:32:29,580
but you couldn't enforce laws against

855
00:32:34,130 --> 00:32:32,519
those changes unless you also limited

856
00:32:35,389 --> 00:32:34,140
where people could go because otherwise

857
00:32:37,130 --> 00:32:35,399
they could just go far away and then

858
00:32:38,509 --> 00:32:37,140
change there and then after they changed

859
00:32:42,409 --> 00:32:38,519
there they would come back here and

860
00:32:44,990 --> 00:32:42,419
contest with us about control over here

861
00:32:48,889 --> 00:32:45,000
uh and a related thing is just this idea

862
00:32:51,430 --> 00:32:48,899
that we have over time been acquiring

863
00:32:55,370 --> 00:32:51,440
more of a world mob or World community

864
00:32:57,230 --> 00:32:55,380
that has suppressed competition and War

865
00:32:59,029 --> 00:32:57,240
and conflict in many ways that people

866
00:33:01,070 --> 00:32:59,039
enjoy and approve

867
00:33:04,310 --> 00:33:01,080
so you know thousands of years ago the

868
00:33:06,649 --> 00:33:04,320
world was full of Warring Empires

869
00:33:09,110 --> 00:33:06,659
you know with enormous destruction of

870
00:33:11,090 --> 00:33:09,120
constantly fighting each other and in

871
00:33:13,130 --> 00:33:11,100
the last century we have created more of

872
00:33:15,649 --> 00:33:13,140
a world community and now we actually

873
00:33:17,990 --> 00:33:15,659
substantially suppress suppress conflict

874
00:33:20,210 --> 00:33:18,000
suppress War but we also suppress many

875
00:33:22,009 --> 00:33:20,220
kinds of business competition

876
00:33:24,830 --> 00:33:22,019
regulations of business are pretty

877
00:33:26,570 --> 00:33:24,840
similar worldwide regulation of

878
00:33:28,669 --> 00:33:26,580
telecommunications and nuclear energy

879
00:33:31,130 --> 00:33:28,679
and transportation and a wide range of

880
00:33:33,230 --> 00:33:31,140
other things are actually

881
00:33:35,570 --> 00:33:33,240
pretty much the same the whole world

882
00:33:37,610 --> 00:33:35,580
over in ways that greatly limit changes

883
00:33:39,830 --> 00:33:37,620
in those areas too many people's

884
00:33:41,630 --> 00:33:39,840
satisfaction they like the idea that we

885
00:33:44,389 --> 00:33:41,640
aren't allowing organ sales or we aren't

886
00:33:45,950 --> 00:33:44,399
allowing just Rogue nuclear reactors Etc

887
00:33:49,250 --> 00:33:45,960
around the world

888
00:33:51,049 --> 00:33:49,260
and people will in the future even more

889
00:33:53,149 --> 00:33:51,059
like what we've done with the world

890
00:33:55,310 --> 00:33:53,159
governance and the world mobs that we

891
00:33:57,169 --> 00:33:55,320
have created even today people are

892
00:33:58,850 --> 00:33:57,179
talking about how we could deal with

893
00:34:00,470 --> 00:33:58,860
inequality how we could deal with global

894
00:34:02,990 --> 00:34:00,480
warming if we have enough World

895
00:34:05,029 --> 00:34:03,000
community and World coordination

896
00:34:06,529 --> 00:34:05,039
and we will succeed more of that and we

897
00:34:09,169 --> 00:34:06,539
will have more of that coordination and

898
00:34:11,930 --> 00:34:09,179
all of that would be at risk as soon as

899
00:34:14,450 --> 00:34:11,940
colonists leave here for other stars

900
00:34:16,250 --> 00:34:14,460
we would no longer be able to have a

901
00:34:18,889 --> 00:34:16,260
civilization-wide governance that

902
00:34:21,409 --> 00:34:18,899
imposes its will on all of us

903
00:34:23,629 --> 00:34:21,419
uh we would then have competitors who

904
00:34:26,030 --> 00:34:23,639
leave out to distant stars in a few

905
00:34:28,310 --> 00:34:26,040
thousand years later come back with new

906
00:34:30,230 --> 00:34:28,320
technologies new ways of thinking and

907
00:34:31,970 --> 00:34:30,240
contest with us for our control over

908
00:34:34,790 --> 00:34:31,980
here

909
00:34:38,030 --> 00:34:34,800
so it's almost like a fragile ecosystem

910
00:34:40,490 --> 00:34:38,040
or fragile hierarchy they are the bear

911
00:34:42,050 --> 00:34:40,500
as you say they don't want to see us

912
00:34:44,210 --> 00:34:42,060
have that change that we could then

913
00:34:45,349 --> 00:34:44,220
change them or impose ourselves on our

914
00:34:47,690 --> 00:34:45,359
civilization

915
00:34:50,030 --> 00:34:47,700
but again hopefully I'm thinking about

916
00:34:51,950 --> 00:34:50,040
this the right way if one of those

917
00:34:54,649 --> 00:34:51,960
civilizations again wanted us to stay

918
00:34:57,050 --> 00:34:54,659
quiet how would we as a younger

919
00:35:00,250 --> 00:34:57,060
civilization and far more naive and less

920
00:35:02,089 --> 00:35:00,260
Advanced know to trust that

921
00:35:04,010 --> 00:35:02,099
persuasiveness because like you say

922
00:35:05,990 --> 00:35:04,020
they're reluctant to Destroyers

923
00:35:07,849 --> 00:35:06,000
but how make that look that you have to

924
00:35:10,310 --> 00:35:07,859
then trust

925
00:35:12,470 --> 00:35:10,320
what's so the key question is they're

926
00:35:14,810 --> 00:35:12,480
here to persuade us how do they plan to

927
00:35:17,270 --> 00:35:14,820
persuade us what is their persuasion

928
00:35:20,450 --> 00:35:17,280
strategy and this is where I think I'll

929
00:35:23,390 --> 00:35:20,460
add the third element of my hypothesis

930
00:35:25,910 --> 00:35:23,400
to explain UFOs is alien so remember the

931
00:35:27,410 --> 00:35:25,920
first part there is panzerbian Siblings

932
00:35:28,849 --> 00:35:27,420
out there one of which had reached our

933
00:35:31,069 --> 00:35:28,859
level before us

934
00:35:32,870 --> 00:35:31,079
the second part is they chose a

935
00:35:34,970 --> 00:35:32,880
non-growth strategy

936
00:35:36,470 --> 00:35:34,980
had a rule internally against that which

937
00:35:38,210 --> 00:35:36,480
explains why they're here

938
00:35:40,069 --> 00:35:38,220
and of course they also reluctant

939
00:35:42,050 --> 00:35:40,079
destroy us because they haven't

940
00:35:44,030 --> 00:35:42,060
and now we have to ask okay but what's

941
00:35:46,250 --> 00:35:44,040
their plan how will they convince us

942
00:35:50,329 --> 00:35:46,260
then to not expand

943
00:35:53,030 --> 00:35:50,339
and here I'm going to go on a very

944
00:35:56,210 --> 00:35:53,040
common observation among social species

945
00:35:59,569 --> 00:35:56,220
is that pretty much all social species

946
00:36:01,490 --> 00:35:59,579
have a status hierarchy a pecking order

947
00:36:03,589 --> 00:36:01,500
there's the high and the low

948
00:36:05,089 --> 00:36:03,599
and a very common feature is the low

949
00:36:07,490 --> 00:36:05,099
defer to the high

950
00:36:10,550 --> 00:36:07,500
the low copy the high the higher in

951
00:36:12,829 --> 00:36:10,560
charge the low go along

952
00:36:14,510 --> 00:36:12,839
this is very robust across animal

953
00:36:16,790 --> 00:36:14,520
species here on Earth and we might

954
00:36:20,270 --> 00:36:16,800
postulate that it's also robust among

955
00:36:23,210 --> 00:36:20,280
animal species where they came from

956
00:36:26,390 --> 00:36:23,220
so their strategy is simply to be our

957
00:36:27,950 --> 00:36:26,400
high so the way humans have domesticated

958
00:36:29,930 --> 00:36:27,960
most other animals that we have

959
00:36:31,790 --> 00:36:29,940
domesticated is that they have a status

960
00:36:33,650 --> 00:36:31,800
hierarchy and we have just slipped in as

961
00:36:35,510 --> 00:36:33,660
the top of their hierarchy

962
00:36:39,230 --> 00:36:35,520
the way we domesticate dogs is we

963
00:36:41,150 --> 00:36:39,240
convince the dogs we are the top dog

964
00:36:44,750 --> 00:36:41,160
and that's why they should do what we

965
00:36:48,410 --> 00:36:44,760
say it's a very common standard strategy

966
00:36:49,670 --> 00:36:48,420
to domesticate a species you become

967
00:36:52,010 --> 00:36:49,680
their top dog

968
00:36:54,290 --> 00:36:52,020
so that's the alien strategy they are

969
00:36:56,750 --> 00:36:54,300
going to domesticate Us by being our

970
00:37:00,109 --> 00:36:56,760
highest status members

971
00:37:01,430 --> 00:37:00,119
so the simple strategy is to be here not

972
00:37:02,630 --> 00:37:01,440
out there if they did very impressive

973
00:37:04,370 --> 00:37:02,640
things way out there in the universe

974
00:37:05,930 --> 00:37:04,380
they would be them and not us so they

975
00:37:06,770 --> 00:37:05,940
have to be part of us they have to be

976
00:37:08,450 --> 00:37:06,780
here

977
00:37:10,130 --> 00:37:08,460
and then they just have to be more

978
00:37:11,390 --> 00:37:10,140
impressive than the rest of us so you

979
00:37:13,790 --> 00:37:11,400
know all through history even in human

980
00:37:15,410 --> 00:37:13,800
civilization the emperor wants you to

981
00:37:16,849 --> 00:37:15,420
convince them to bow down and obey the

982
00:37:18,589 --> 00:37:16,859
emperor then the emperor just has to be

983
00:37:20,990 --> 00:37:18,599
more impressive than you in a great many

984
00:37:24,829 --> 00:37:21,000
ways a bigger Palace a bigger Chariot

985
00:37:28,370 --> 00:37:24,839
bigger Crown bigger Entourage you know

986
00:37:31,190 --> 00:37:28,380
handsome strong knowledgeable witty they

987
00:37:33,410 --> 00:37:31,200
just have to be the top right

988
00:37:36,230 --> 00:37:33,420
so the alien strategy is to come here

989
00:37:38,690 --> 00:37:36,240
and be our top say to be the most

990
00:37:41,630 --> 00:37:38,700
impressive thing around that we can see

991
00:37:43,910 --> 00:37:41,640
now they have one key problem with this

992
00:37:46,490 --> 00:37:43,920
so if you think about how humans have

993
00:37:48,710 --> 00:37:46,500
reacted to other alien sorry other

994
00:37:52,250 --> 00:37:48,720
foreign civilizations

995
00:37:53,569 --> 00:37:52,260
on Earth are still pretty similar to us

996
00:37:54,710 --> 00:37:53,579
I mean they're the same species they're

997
00:37:56,690 --> 00:37:54,720
only a little bit different but

998
00:37:58,490 --> 00:37:56,700
nevertheless we have often found ways to

999
00:38:00,230 --> 00:37:58,500
be horrified by these small differences

1000
00:38:01,849 --> 00:38:00,240
that exist

1001
00:38:04,190 --> 00:38:01,859
and that's a problem

1002
00:38:06,050 --> 00:38:04,200
so a foreigner who comes and tries to be

1003
00:38:07,609 --> 00:38:06,060
the top of your civilization that's a

1004
00:38:09,950 --> 00:38:07,619
problem if we see them as the Foreigner

1005
00:38:11,569 --> 00:38:09,960
instead of as one of us

1006
00:38:12,170 --> 00:38:11,579
and so

1007
00:38:14,210 --> 00:38:12,180
um

1008
00:38:17,390 --> 00:38:14,220
the aliens have a simple fix for that

1009
00:38:18,950 --> 00:38:17,400
which is not to show much about them

1010
00:38:21,109 --> 00:38:18,960
if they were to land on the White House

1011
00:38:22,550 --> 00:38:21,119
lawn and start to talk a lot about their

1012
00:38:24,109 --> 00:38:22,560
civilization where they came from and

1013
00:38:25,310 --> 00:38:24,119
how they do things and their various

1014
00:38:27,950 --> 00:38:25,320
customs and

1015
00:38:29,990 --> 00:38:27,960
principles we would almost surely find

1016
00:38:32,990 --> 00:38:30,000
something we hated maybe they eat babies

1017
00:38:35,030 --> 00:38:33,000
who knows to them it's not a problem to

1018
00:38:36,589 --> 00:38:35,040
us it's terrible right they can't

1019
00:38:38,210 --> 00:38:36,599
predict which things will hate but they

1020
00:38:40,190 --> 00:38:38,220
can be pretty sure that if they tell us

1021
00:38:42,170 --> 00:38:40,200
a lot of things we're going to hate a

1022
00:38:43,790 --> 00:38:42,180
couple of them and that then the whole

1023
00:38:45,829 --> 00:38:43,800
plan is off right then we're not going

1024
00:38:48,770 --> 00:38:45,839
to see them as the top one of us and

1025
00:38:51,589 --> 00:38:48,780
we're going to reject them so they have

1026
00:38:54,710 --> 00:38:51,599
to be here be really impressive but not

1027
00:38:57,890 --> 00:38:54,720
reveal very much about themselves

1028
00:38:59,930 --> 00:38:57,900
so this is the explanation then for why

1029
00:39:01,849 --> 00:38:59,940
they hang out at the edge of our vision

1030
00:39:03,349 --> 00:39:01,859
because there's this key puzzle that

1031
00:39:05,450 --> 00:39:03,359
many people have noted about this idea

1032
00:39:07,130 --> 00:39:05,460
that UFOs might be aliens look if

1033
00:39:08,630 --> 00:39:07,140
they're 100 million years more advanced

1034
00:39:10,730 --> 00:39:08,640
than us than they could have either a

1035
00:39:11,990 --> 00:39:10,740
made themselves really obvious and

1036
00:39:13,490 --> 00:39:12,000
visible you know

1037
00:39:16,190 --> 00:39:13,500
White House lawn

1038
00:39:17,750 --> 00:39:16,200
and putting out a hand talking you know

1039
00:39:18,890 --> 00:39:17,760
being really impressive just being

1040
00:39:21,410 --> 00:39:18,900
really obvious that would have been

1041
00:39:24,109 --> 00:39:21,420
really possible or they could have been

1042
00:39:25,849 --> 00:39:24,119
completely invisible there's no reason

1043
00:39:27,589 --> 00:39:25,859
why if they wanted to track an observist

1044
00:39:29,270 --> 00:39:27,599
they would need to be at all visible in

1045
00:39:31,490 --> 00:39:29,280
the sky they could have some completely

1046
00:39:33,829 --> 00:39:31,500
black satellites orbiting hundreds of

1047
00:39:36,170 --> 00:39:33,839
miles above that we would never see

1048
00:39:37,550 --> 00:39:36,180
with powerful telescopes they could

1049
00:39:38,510 --> 00:39:37,560
observe pretty much anything they wanted

1050
00:39:40,069 --> 00:39:38,520
down here

1051
00:39:41,930 --> 00:39:40,079
there's no reason for them to be

1052
00:39:45,050 --> 00:39:41,940
flashing around in the sky in ways that

1053
00:39:47,750 --> 00:39:45,060
we would see so one last puzzle about

1054
00:39:50,210 --> 00:39:47,760
UFOs as aliens is why are they hanging

1055
00:39:52,190 --> 00:39:50,220
out at the edge of our vision

1056
00:39:53,810 --> 00:39:52,200
somewhat visible but not very visible

1057
00:39:55,970 --> 00:39:53,820
showing a few things about themselves

1058
00:39:58,010 --> 00:39:55,980
but not much

1059
00:39:59,810 --> 00:39:58,020
and the hypothesis here is that's

1060
00:40:02,329 --> 00:39:59,820
because this is their safest strategy

1061
00:40:03,950 --> 00:40:02,339
for being our top dog

1062
00:40:06,410 --> 00:40:03,960
eventually we'll be convinced they're

1063
00:40:07,970 --> 00:40:06,420
there we'll be really impressed and we

1064
00:40:09,770 --> 00:40:07,980
can figure out their agenda just from

1065
00:40:11,690 --> 00:40:09,780
that they don't need to tell us anything

1066
00:40:13,370 --> 00:40:11,700
you and I have just discussed we can

1067
00:40:15,290 --> 00:40:13,380
figure out why they're here we can

1068
00:40:17,089 --> 00:40:15,300
figure out what they want

1069
00:40:19,130 --> 00:40:17,099
let me ask that that's really really

1070
00:40:20,990 --> 00:40:19,140
interesting and I often use analogies

1071
00:40:23,510 --> 00:40:21,000
about fish when I talk about you know

1072
00:40:25,849 --> 00:40:23,520
aliens UFOs sightings and how that might

1073
00:40:27,710 --> 00:40:25,859
work with two different species

1074
00:40:29,630 --> 00:40:27,720
the the assumption is that we're

1075
00:40:32,630 --> 00:40:29,640
technologically advanced enough to this

1076
00:40:34,010 --> 00:40:32,640
higher civilization that they they feel

1077
00:40:35,510 --> 00:40:34,020
comfortable that they can have a level

1078
00:40:37,910 --> 00:40:35,520
of communication

1079
00:40:40,309 --> 00:40:37,920
but for example we wouldn't compare

1080
00:40:42,950 --> 00:40:40,319
ourselves to a fish in the ocean and a

1081
00:40:44,630 --> 00:40:42,960
fish would see the bottom of a boat at

1082
00:40:45,890 --> 00:40:44,640
being on the edge of their their site

1083
00:40:47,450 --> 00:40:45,900
and they see the kind of shimmering

1084
00:40:49,730 --> 00:40:47,460
light around the boat and the bottom of

1085
00:40:51,410 --> 00:40:49,740
the boat having no comprehension of

1086
00:40:52,730 --> 00:40:51,420
what's on the boat the species on the

1087
00:40:53,690 --> 00:40:52,740
boat or what they're doing or why

1088
00:40:56,210 --> 00:40:53,700
they're there

1089
00:40:57,950 --> 00:40:56,220
is it possible that these UFOs that we

1090
00:40:59,690 --> 00:40:57,960
do see in the sky and let's for a moment

1091
00:41:01,490 --> 00:40:59,700
assume we are seeing let's go with the

1092
00:41:03,290 --> 00:41:01,500
classic Flying Saucer Shiny Bright

1093
00:41:06,130 --> 00:41:03,300
Lights all that kind of stuff

1094
00:41:08,450 --> 00:41:06,140
is it possible that we're so

1095
00:41:10,190 --> 00:41:08,460
inefficiently Advanced to these other

1096
00:41:12,650 --> 00:41:10,200
civilizations that are visiting here

1097
00:41:15,290 --> 00:41:12,660
potentially that they see us in the same

1098
00:41:16,910 --> 00:41:15,300
way we would see a fish so to them that

1099
00:41:18,650 --> 00:41:16,920
we are not announcing ourselves to the

1100
00:41:20,990 --> 00:41:18,660
fish we just happen to be at the top of

1101
00:41:23,089 --> 00:41:21,000
you know the ocean and these other

1102
00:41:26,870 --> 00:41:23,099
saucers and other craft are here because

1103
00:41:28,730 --> 00:41:26,880
they just see a planet and we're so so

1104
00:41:30,589 --> 00:41:28,740
far down the pecking order so to speak

1105
00:41:32,329 --> 00:41:30,599
that we're not even at the point of you

1106
00:41:34,250 --> 00:41:32,339
know being the dog to be stroked and

1107
00:41:38,210 --> 00:41:34,260
domesticated and we're just something

1108
00:41:44,450 --> 00:41:40,910
so the more you know

1109
00:41:46,670 --> 00:41:44,460
the more ways you can be puzzled

1110
00:41:48,290 --> 00:41:46,680
a young child looks at strange things

1111
00:41:50,089 --> 00:41:48,300
and doesn't know they're strange and

1112
00:41:52,730 --> 00:41:50,099
isn't puzzled

1113
00:41:55,370 --> 00:41:52,740
it's when you have stronger expectations

1114
00:41:57,349 --> 00:41:55,380
that then Things become puzzling and

1115
00:41:59,750 --> 00:41:57,359
even unlikely seeming

1116
00:42:01,550 --> 00:41:59,760
so when you're constructing a scenario

1117
00:42:03,950 --> 00:42:01,560
you have to look at the whole scenario

1118
00:42:06,470 --> 00:42:03,960
in order to see how plausible it is so

1119
00:42:08,150 --> 00:42:06,480
if you just say assume they are really

1120
00:42:11,450 --> 00:42:08,160
Advanced so Advanced they don't care

1121
00:42:13,130 --> 00:42:11,460
much about us and then you ask would

1122
00:42:14,809 --> 00:42:13,140
they be you know communicating with us

1123
00:42:17,030 --> 00:42:14,819
or explaining themselves to us you might

1124
00:42:19,550 --> 00:42:17,040
say no given that assumption that

1125
00:42:21,890 --> 00:42:19,560
particular implication isn't problematic

1126
00:42:24,050 --> 00:42:21,900
however that assumption is problematic

1127
00:42:25,370 --> 00:42:24,060
with respect to other things we see so

1128
00:42:27,530 --> 00:42:25,380
the key point is

1129
00:42:29,030 --> 00:42:27,540
if there are aliens so common in the

1130
00:42:30,710 --> 00:42:29,040
universe that they just happen to be

1131
00:42:32,990 --> 00:42:30,720
here at the moment then what they would

1132
00:42:34,849 --> 00:42:33,000
pretty much happen to be everywhere

1133
00:42:36,710 --> 00:42:34,859
and if they were that common that they

1134
00:42:38,210 --> 00:42:36,720
happen to be everywhere then why does it

1135
00:42:42,349 --> 00:42:38,220
all look so empty

1136
00:42:45,890 --> 00:42:42,359
why is the universe so unused so dead

1137
00:42:49,010 --> 00:42:45,900
uh aliens that were that common and had

1138
00:42:51,589 --> 00:42:49,020
any substantial aspirations to do stuff

1139
00:42:52,849 --> 00:42:51,599
well they would have been doing stuff a

1140
00:42:54,109 --> 00:42:52,859
long time ago and they would have done a

1141
00:42:56,930 --> 00:42:54,119
lot and then when we looked up we would

1142
00:42:58,910 --> 00:42:56,940
see a lot right so

1143
00:43:00,890 --> 00:42:58,920
look if you show up in the middle of a

1144
00:43:03,710 --> 00:43:00,900
city

1145
00:43:05,150 --> 00:43:03,720
and stand on a corner you shouldn't be

1146
00:43:07,970 --> 00:43:05,160
surprised if everybody just walks past

1147
00:43:10,069 --> 00:43:07,980
you and nobody says hi

1148
00:43:11,390 --> 00:43:10,079
but you should notice that you're in a

1149
00:43:12,589 --> 00:43:11,400
city you would it would look different

1150
00:43:14,510 --> 00:43:12,599
than if you were in the middle of the

1151
00:43:16,910 --> 00:43:14,520
ocean or in the forest or in a desert

1152
00:43:18,829 --> 00:43:16,920
the city would look different that would

1153
00:43:21,050 --> 00:43:18,839
be your clue that there was something

1154
00:43:22,910 --> 00:43:21,060
going on not their interest in you not

1155
00:43:25,250 --> 00:43:22,920
how they communicated with you with just

1156
00:43:28,190 --> 00:43:25,260
the stuff you saw around you

1157
00:43:30,230 --> 00:43:28,200
so our first thing we need to explain is

1158
00:43:31,910 --> 00:43:30,240
why does the universe look so empty and

1159
00:43:33,349 --> 00:43:31,920
dead

1160
00:43:35,089 --> 00:43:33,359
and of course the simplest explanation

1161
00:43:37,490 --> 00:43:35,099
of that is because it is empty and dead

1162
00:43:39,410 --> 00:43:37,500
there isn't anybody else out there right

1163
00:43:40,910 --> 00:43:39,420
and now we say oh but there's some

1164
00:43:42,530 --> 00:43:40,920
aliens visiting and now we've got a

1165
00:43:45,050 --> 00:43:42,540
problem

1166
00:43:46,309 --> 00:43:45,060
because now we're postulating both that

1167
00:43:48,170 --> 00:43:46,319
there are Advanced creatures who are

1168
00:43:50,530 --> 00:43:48,180
capable of enormous things and perhaps

1169
00:43:52,910 --> 00:43:50,540
have enormous damn missions and yet

1170
00:43:55,069 --> 00:43:52,920
everything's dead and empty that's the

1171
00:43:56,510 --> 00:43:55,079
puzzle

1172
00:43:58,370 --> 00:43:56,520
and I suppose that's where the

1173
00:44:00,770 --> 00:43:58,380
conversation many would take down the

1174
00:44:02,210 --> 00:44:00,780
root of alternate Dimensions different

1175
00:44:04,970 --> 00:44:02,220
realities

1176
00:44:06,829 --> 00:44:04,980
that doesn't help like find there's

1177
00:44:08,809 --> 00:44:06,839
other places they could go but here's a

1178
00:44:10,550 --> 00:44:08,819
place why aren't they here doing stuff

1179
00:44:13,190 --> 00:44:10,560
with this stuff

1180
00:44:15,130 --> 00:44:13,200
is that not though again it's not part

1181
00:44:18,230 --> 00:44:15,140
of your model obviously but I'm curious

1182
00:44:20,089 --> 00:44:18,240
why why is that problematic because to

1183
00:44:21,890 --> 00:44:20,099
many and many people who listen to this

1184
00:44:23,990 --> 00:44:21,900
podcast I've got different opinions on

1185
00:44:26,329 --> 00:44:24,000
where these things may be from and to

1186
00:44:28,970 --> 00:44:26,339
many it's now too too simple to expect

1187
00:44:31,309 --> 00:44:28,980
aliens coming from Mars for example and

1188
00:44:33,950 --> 00:44:31,319
people talk about higher beings levels

1189
00:44:36,109 --> 00:44:33,960
of consciousness why is that problematic

1190
00:44:38,270 --> 00:44:36,119
to things

1191
00:44:40,490 --> 00:44:38,280
maybe I'm not understanding you but if

1192
00:44:42,109 --> 00:44:40,500
you look at life on Earth and you go to

1193
00:44:45,470 --> 00:44:42,119
a desert and you say

1194
00:44:47,089 --> 00:44:45,480
why why is this desert empty of life

1195
00:44:49,010 --> 00:44:47,099
well first of all you look closely it

1196
00:44:50,930 --> 00:44:49,020
isn't empty but to a first cut it looks

1197
00:44:52,550 --> 00:44:50,940
kind of empty right now you might say

1198
00:44:54,950 --> 00:44:52,560
well because the life that could have

1199
00:44:56,450 --> 00:44:54,960
come to the desert it's now in the

1200
00:44:58,849 --> 00:44:56,460
Amazon

1201
00:45:00,710 --> 00:44:58,859
well that's not an answer because the

1202
00:45:01,609 --> 00:45:00,720
point is life spreads everywhere it can

1203
00:45:03,410 --> 00:45:01,619
go

1204
00:45:05,089 --> 00:45:03,420
wherever life started it went to the

1205
00:45:06,470 --> 00:45:05,099
Amazon and it went to the ocean and it

1206
00:45:08,569 --> 00:45:06,480
went to the polls and it went to the

1207
00:45:10,609 --> 00:45:08,579
mountains right you look at any one

1208
00:45:12,050 --> 00:45:10,619
place and you don't say why why is there

1209
00:45:14,030 --> 00:45:12,060
no life here an explanation is because

1210
00:45:15,710 --> 00:45:14,040
it wanted to go elsewhere because life

1211
00:45:17,390 --> 00:45:15,720
just goes everywhere am it doesn't

1212
00:45:18,230 --> 00:45:17,400
choose one place to go it goes

1213
00:45:19,910 --> 00:45:18,240
everywhere

1214
00:45:21,710 --> 00:45:19,920
so if you look at a place on Earth you

1215
00:45:23,210 --> 00:45:21,720
have to say because life can't go here

1216
00:45:24,710 --> 00:45:23,220
that has to be the reason why you don't

1217
00:45:26,569 --> 00:45:24,720
see life here is because

1218
00:45:29,030 --> 00:45:26,579
it just couldn't get here it can't

1219
00:45:31,910 --> 00:45:29,040
Thrive here it's you know too hot too

1220
00:45:34,250 --> 00:45:31,920
too dry too cold whatever it is it can't

1221
00:45:36,349 --> 00:45:34,260
work here that's your explanation

1222
00:45:38,569 --> 00:45:36,359
uh for life on Earth so that would

1223
00:45:40,849 --> 00:45:38,579
similarly have to be the explanation for

1224
00:45:42,710 --> 00:45:40,859
a dead empty Universe you can't say well

1225
00:45:44,930 --> 00:45:42,720
life isn't here because it decided to go

1226
00:45:47,150 --> 00:45:44,940
somewhere else life would decide to go

1227
00:45:48,650 --> 00:45:47,160
everywhere it could if this is a place

1228
00:45:52,690 --> 00:45:48,660
it could go and it's not here you have

1229
00:45:58,130 --> 00:45:56,210
let me ask on these different sightings

1230
00:45:59,990 --> 00:45:58,140
that people have and I know you've said

1231
00:46:01,550 --> 00:46:00,000
before that you don't look at specific

1232
00:46:03,349 --> 00:46:01,560
reports and you would have to look at

1233
00:46:05,450 --> 00:46:03,359
atmospheric phenomena and various other

1234
00:46:08,210 --> 00:46:05,460
aspects of different sightings but

1235
00:46:10,250 --> 00:46:08,220
people do report seeing various

1236
00:46:13,010 --> 00:46:10,260
different shapes of objects

1237
00:46:14,690 --> 00:46:13,020
some of them being bright and shiny you

1238
00:46:16,190 --> 00:46:14,700
know classic flying saucers you hear

1239
00:46:19,069 --> 00:46:16,200
about triangles

1240
00:46:21,109 --> 00:46:19,079
Battleship size craft the the more

1241
00:46:22,790 --> 00:46:21,119
common or newer object discussed

1242
00:46:25,130 --> 00:46:22,800
especially with the Navy Pilots have

1243
00:46:28,010 --> 00:46:25,140
been tic-tac-shaped objects or maybe

1244
00:46:30,050 --> 00:46:28,020
classic cigar shapes would that suggest

1245
00:46:31,490 --> 00:46:30,060
to you that I know these objects you've

1246
00:46:35,030 --> 00:46:31,500
described as puzzling

1247
00:46:36,950 --> 00:46:35,040
that they are all of different origin or

1248
00:46:38,329 --> 00:46:36,960
do you think that these objects not

1249
00:46:40,970 --> 00:46:38,339
necessarily assuming they're coming from

1250
00:46:42,530 --> 00:46:40,980
far away or that far away that they are

1251
00:46:45,349 --> 00:46:42,540
all of the same origin but for different

1252
00:46:50,210 --> 00:46:48,109
again the key thing is to generate a

1253
00:46:52,849 --> 00:46:50,220
whole scenario and then ask how

1254
00:46:54,829 --> 00:46:52,859
believable is that entire scenario

1255
00:46:56,270 --> 00:46:54,839
so given that there would be multiple

1256
00:46:58,790 --> 00:46:56,280
origins of course it wouldn't be

1257
00:47:00,170 --> 00:46:58,800
puzzling that they look different but it

1258
00:47:01,370 --> 00:47:00,180
is puzzling that there would be multiple

1259
00:47:04,010 --> 00:47:01,380
Origins

1260
00:47:07,069 --> 00:47:04,020
because remember if the universe is dead

1261
00:47:08,510 --> 00:47:07,079
and empty that's at odds with it all

1262
00:47:11,089 --> 00:47:08,520
being full of life

1263
00:47:12,890 --> 00:47:11,099
so one way to solve that is the pens for

1264
00:47:15,410 --> 00:47:12,900
Mia siblings where there's only a small

1265
00:47:18,650 --> 00:47:15,420
number of other aliens out there

1266
00:47:20,870 --> 00:47:18,660
maybe only one and then they're here

1267
00:47:23,150 --> 00:47:20,880
the more other ones there are the more

1268
00:47:24,950 --> 00:47:23,160
puzzling this gets right yeah what if

1269
00:47:27,530 --> 00:47:24,960
you postulate there's a hundred pins

1270
00:47:30,530 --> 00:47:27,540
from your siblings right

1271
00:47:32,750 --> 00:47:30,540
well now you have to have imagine this

1272
00:47:34,130 --> 00:47:32,760
first civilization going out and taming

1273
00:47:35,510 --> 00:47:34,140
all of them and making sure they all

1274
00:47:37,490 --> 00:47:35,520
follow the rule

1275
00:47:39,230 --> 00:47:37,500
but somehow this rule that they're all

1276
00:47:40,910 --> 00:47:39,240
following is allowing them all to visit

1277
00:47:43,190 --> 00:47:40,920
here

1278
00:47:44,630 --> 00:47:43,200
you know how are they going to enforce

1279
00:47:45,950 --> 00:47:44,640
this rule if they're allowing that many

1280
00:47:48,410 --> 00:47:45,960
different visitors to go that many

1281
00:47:49,609 --> 00:47:48,420
different places you see the problem

1282
00:47:52,010 --> 00:47:49,619
that is

1283
00:47:54,530 --> 00:47:52,020
each new place that shows up they need

1284
00:47:56,150 --> 00:47:54,540
to send somebody there to make sure they

1285
00:47:58,190 --> 00:47:56,160
follow the rules but they don't need a

1286
00:48:00,650 --> 00:47:58,200
whole bunch of different people all you

1287
00:48:03,049 --> 00:48:00,660
know doing different things going there

1288
00:48:04,790 --> 00:48:03,059
that seems a recipe for breaking the

1289
00:48:06,470 --> 00:48:04,800
rules if you allow that many different

1290
00:48:08,089 --> 00:48:06,480
exceptions you're not going to keep this

1291
00:48:09,530 --> 00:48:08,099
thing going for 100 million years

1292
00:48:12,890 --> 00:48:09,540
remember that's what we're postulating

1293
00:48:14,990 --> 00:48:12,900
they chose to not expand and to not

1294
00:48:17,630 --> 00:48:15,000
allow any part of them to do that they

1295
00:48:19,430 --> 00:48:17,640
lasted for 100 million years and they

1296
00:48:20,930 --> 00:48:19,440
succeeded in preventing any part of them

1297
00:48:22,490 --> 00:48:20,940
from doing that

1298
00:48:24,109 --> 00:48:22,500
if there are now other alien

1299
00:48:26,329 --> 00:48:24,119
civilizations out there that appeared

1300
00:48:28,490 --> 00:48:26,339
between the first and us

1301
00:48:30,290 --> 00:48:28,500
they would have to make sure all of them

1302
00:48:33,170 --> 00:48:30,300
followed the rule

1303
00:48:35,450 --> 00:48:33,180
but that has to mean not very many

1304
00:48:37,190 --> 00:48:35,460
things going around doing stuff

1305
00:48:38,630 --> 00:48:37,200
which means that the minimal strategy

1306
00:48:41,210 --> 00:48:38,640
for dealing with us would just be to

1307
00:48:43,190 --> 00:48:41,220
have one group come to us

1308
00:48:45,170 --> 00:48:43,200
so it makes much more sense than that

1309
00:48:47,870 --> 00:48:45,180
this one group is just expressing itself

1310
00:48:49,069 --> 00:48:47,880
with different shapes than that these

1311
00:48:50,930 --> 00:48:49,079
shapes are coming from different places

1312
00:48:52,309 --> 00:48:50,940
because it's just hard to believe that

1313
00:48:54,290 --> 00:48:52,319
you would allow this many different

1314
00:48:57,170 --> 00:48:54,300
places to come here in order to explain

1315
00:48:59,210 --> 00:48:57,180
this idea that there's just you know one

1316
00:49:01,490 --> 00:48:59,220
group that wants to stop us

1317
00:49:03,410 --> 00:49:01,500
and as you see it's still the idea that

1318
00:49:04,849 --> 00:49:03,420
if there were multiple groups there's

1319
00:49:06,349 --> 00:49:04,859
still going to be a hierarchy because

1320
00:49:08,329 --> 00:49:06,359
there would have been that first group

1321
00:49:10,309 --> 00:49:08,339
that's always going to be further ahead

1322
00:49:12,589 --> 00:49:10,319
and more advanced

1323
00:49:14,210 --> 00:49:12,599
it somehow would have made sure the

1324
00:49:16,309 --> 00:49:14,220
other ones followed the rule and then

1325
00:49:19,130 --> 00:49:16,319
created some integrated policing

1326
00:49:21,349 --> 00:49:19,140
structure that that guaranteed that

1327
00:49:22,849 --> 00:49:21,359
okay that would be pretty hard but

1328
00:49:24,589 --> 00:49:22,859
that's what we have to postulate to look

1329
00:49:26,210 --> 00:49:24,599
up in the universe and say it's all

1330
00:49:29,030 --> 00:49:26,220
empty nobody's doing anything that we

1331
00:49:31,730 --> 00:49:29,040
can see how does that make any sense

1332
00:49:33,290 --> 00:49:31,740
so so again the key idea is any one

1333
00:49:34,910 --> 00:49:33,300
piece can make sense but when you put

1334
00:49:36,109 --> 00:49:34,920
all the pieces together then they can

1335
00:49:37,609 --> 00:49:36,119
have conflicts with each other when

1336
00:49:39,470 --> 00:49:37,619
you're trying to create a scenario that

1337
00:49:41,210 --> 00:49:39,480
makes sense

1338
00:49:42,170 --> 00:49:41,220
let me ask you to Robin in the time of

1339
00:49:44,210 --> 00:49:42,180
what left because you've been really

1340
00:49:46,549 --> 00:49:44,220
generous so far and I really do hope to

1341
00:49:49,069 --> 00:49:46,559
yourself and the listeners I've managed

1342
00:49:51,290 --> 00:49:49,079
to make some sense of the conversation

1343
00:49:53,510 --> 00:49:51,300
um it's it's a fascinating discussion

1344
00:49:55,549 --> 00:49:53,520
and hopefully I've kept at my end to

1345
00:49:57,230 --> 00:49:55,559
some degree with you Robin

1346
00:49:59,750 --> 00:49:57,240
um I want to ask about the the James

1347
00:50:01,849 --> 00:49:59,760
Webb images we saw the other day I think

1348
00:50:04,849 --> 00:50:01,859
it's very timely given what you talk

1349
00:50:06,290 --> 00:50:04,859
about and what the paper proposes that

1350
00:50:09,230 --> 00:50:06,300
we've just seen some incredible images

1351
00:50:11,210 --> 00:50:09,240
dating back 13 billion years into the

1352
00:50:13,370 --> 00:50:11,220
universe what were your first thoughts

1353
00:50:15,950 --> 00:50:13,380
when you when you saw those images

1354
00:50:19,130 --> 00:50:15,960
well pretty

1355
00:50:21,530 --> 00:50:19,140
uh with respect to aliens uh you know in

1356
00:50:24,589 --> 00:50:21,540
our analysis of gravity aliens what we

1357
00:50:26,349 --> 00:50:24,599
say is that how many alien civilizations

1358
00:50:28,670 --> 00:50:26,359
you might expect to see out there

1359
00:50:30,290 --> 00:50:28,680
depends on this key parameter of how

1360
00:50:32,870 --> 00:50:30,300
fast they expand

1361
00:50:35,569 --> 00:50:32,880
if they would expand slowly that we

1362
00:50:37,069 --> 00:50:35,579
should see hundreds of vast alien

1363
00:50:38,270 --> 00:50:37,079
spheres of control out there in the

1364
00:50:40,490 --> 00:50:38,280
universe

1365
00:50:42,829 --> 00:50:40,500
if they expand fast enough then we

1366
00:50:46,010 --> 00:50:42,839
should expect to see Zero of them

1367
00:50:47,990 --> 00:50:46,020
but even if we only saw one or two the

1368
00:50:50,390 --> 00:50:48,000
model predicts they would be enormous in

1369
00:50:52,309 --> 00:50:50,400
the sky much larger than the full moon

1370
00:50:54,650 --> 00:50:52,319
so that means you don't really need to

1371
00:50:56,390 --> 00:50:54,660
look a long way off at fine details to

1372
00:50:58,849 --> 00:50:56,400
distinguish these theories

1373
00:51:00,829 --> 00:50:58,859
if you want to say are the aliens out

1374
00:51:03,170 --> 00:51:00,839
there expanding fast or slow you just

1375
00:51:05,089 --> 00:51:03,180
say do I see any enormous fears in the

1376
00:51:06,049 --> 00:51:05,099
sky that look different than the regions

1377
00:51:09,109 --> 00:51:06,059
around them

1378
00:51:10,670 --> 00:51:09,119
and for that again even our naked eye is

1379
00:51:13,130 --> 00:51:10,680
good enough as long as we're looking in

1380
00:51:15,650 --> 00:51:13,140
the right sort of frequencies to tell

1381
00:51:17,390 --> 00:51:15,660
the difference so here you've got this

1382
00:51:19,430 --> 00:51:17,400
enormously sophisticated telescope that

1383
00:51:21,349 --> 00:51:19,440
can look even more finely all the way

1384
00:51:23,150 --> 00:51:21,359
across the universe and very tiny

1385
00:51:26,930 --> 00:51:23,160
angular scales

1386
00:51:29,450 --> 00:51:26,940
but we don't need that in order to

1387
00:51:31,609 --> 00:51:29,460
judge this basic fact are there enormous

1388
00:51:34,849 --> 00:51:31,619
fears in the sky or not

1389
00:51:36,230 --> 00:51:34,859
uh so for the basic purpose of you know

1390
00:51:37,730 --> 00:51:36,240
figuring out where we are in the

1391
00:51:40,490 --> 00:51:37,740
universe and what the aliens are like

1392
00:51:42,589 --> 00:51:40,500
the detail this telescope is showing us

1393
00:51:44,270 --> 00:51:42,599
isn't very relevant

1394
00:51:45,829 --> 00:51:44,280
it's pretty and hopefully we'll learn a

1395
00:51:48,589 --> 00:51:45,839
lot of other things about the nature of

1396
00:51:50,990 --> 00:51:48,599
galaxies and the natures of other things

1397
00:51:53,089 --> 00:51:51,000
one of the things they showed is uh you

1398
00:51:56,150 --> 00:51:53,099
know oxygen in the atmosphere of a

1399
00:51:58,549 --> 00:51:56,160
planet a few hundred light years away

1400
00:52:00,530 --> 00:51:58,559
and that's interesting from the point of

1401
00:52:02,690 --> 00:52:00,540
view of asking how many planets out

1402
00:52:04,849 --> 00:52:02,700
there might have life on them at very

1403
00:52:08,030 --> 00:52:04,859
early stages

1404
00:52:10,250 --> 00:52:08,040
but the key thing we know is that you

1405
00:52:12,410 --> 00:52:10,260
know there is almost no

1406
00:52:15,470 --> 00:52:12,420
vast civilizations out there

1407
00:52:17,329 --> 00:52:15,480
so the more planets we see what

1408
00:52:19,970 --> 00:52:17,339
plausibly have life in earlier stages

1409
00:52:21,829 --> 00:52:19,980
than the the more we have to expect

1410
00:52:23,630 --> 00:52:21,839
difficulties later on in the process

1411
00:52:27,770 --> 00:52:23,640
because the one thing we can be pretty

1412
00:52:31,190 --> 00:52:27,780
confident of is getting to our level or

1413
00:52:32,990 --> 00:52:31,200
even a bit further is extremely rare

1414
00:52:34,910 --> 00:52:33,000
so there has to be what I've called a

1415
00:52:36,890 --> 00:52:34,920
great filter some process that makes it

1416
00:52:38,569 --> 00:52:36,900
very difficult to go from simple dead

1417
00:52:40,609 --> 00:52:38,579
matter all the way up to where we are

1418
00:52:42,170 --> 00:52:40,619
and then all the way to be very visible

1419
00:52:45,589 --> 00:52:42,180
in the universe

1420
00:52:47,329 --> 00:52:45,599
so if we actually saw say

1421
00:52:49,430 --> 00:52:47,339
oxygen in the atmosphere of a planet

1422
00:52:51,710 --> 00:52:49,440
such that we believe that was because of

1423
00:52:54,290 --> 00:52:51,720
Life on that planet

1424
00:52:56,450 --> 00:52:54,300
well that suggests that the great filter

1425
00:52:58,130 --> 00:52:56,460
is not at the very first stage of having

1426
00:53:00,170 --> 00:52:58,140
life exist at all

1427
00:53:02,870 --> 00:53:00,180
it's at some later stage in the process

1428
00:53:05,150 --> 00:53:02,880
before you get to where we are

1429
00:53:06,349 --> 00:53:05,160
and you have to worry then it's after

1430
00:53:09,650 --> 00:53:06,359
Where We Are

1431
00:53:11,690 --> 00:53:09,660
that is what we look up as we see no

1432
00:53:13,730 --> 00:53:11,700
huge civilizations out there but we're

1433
00:53:15,829 --> 00:53:13,740
not quite there yet and there could be

1434
00:53:17,329 --> 00:53:15,839
more obstacles between where we are and

1435
00:53:20,809 --> 00:53:17,339
to get to that stage

1436
00:53:22,910 --> 00:53:20,819
and the in order to sort of save the

1437
00:53:24,470 --> 00:53:22,920
theory that it's easy going from here on

1438
00:53:26,089 --> 00:53:24,480
you have to believe that all the tough

1439
00:53:28,549 --> 00:53:26,099
going was in the past

1440
00:53:30,829 --> 00:53:28,559
but the more you see earlier stages

1441
00:53:32,390 --> 00:53:30,839
where it doesn't look so hard the more

1442
00:53:34,069 --> 00:53:32,400
you have to worry that the tough goings

1443
00:53:36,230 --> 00:53:34,079
in our future

1444
00:53:39,049 --> 00:53:36,240
and that's bad news

1445
00:53:40,430 --> 00:53:39,059
you mentioned that James Webb isn't

1446
00:53:42,349 --> 00:53:40,440
necessarily going to show us those

1447
00:53:44,030 --> 00:53:42,359
things that we could be looking for much

1448
00:53:46,250 --> 00:53:44,040
closer to home

1449
00:53:48,049 --> 00:53:46,260
the Galileo project is that something

1450
00:53:50,870 --> 00:53:48,059
you're aware of that's spearheaded by

1451
00:53:53,210 --> 00:53:50,880
Avi loib

1452
00:53:55,609 --> 00:53:53,220
I I know that there's some project to

1453
00:53:57,470 --> 00:53:55,619
just take pictures in our atmosphere of

1454
00:53:59,150 --> 00:53:57,480
unusual phenomena and then maybe catch

1455
00:54:01,190 --> 00:53:59,160
something interesting so that's what

1456
00:54:02,569 --> 00:54:01,200
we're talking about yes uh they're

1457
00:54:03,950 --> 00:54:02,579
looking to put up several different

1458
00:54:05,690 --> 00:54:03,960
telescopes and different equipment

1459
00:54:08,630 --> 00:54:05,700
around the planet various differently

1460
00:54:10,370 --> 00:54:08,640
seems like a relatively cheap way to

1461
00:54:13,730 --> 00:54:10,380
maybe find something interesting I'm

1462
00:54:15,349 --> 00:54:13,740
happy to support it but you know the key

1463
00:54:18,530 --> 00:54:15,359
under the scenario that I've talked

1464
00:54:20,690 --> 00:54:18,540
about you know they're going to adjust

1465
00:54:22,490 --> 00:54:20,700
to our Behavior to still stay at the

1466
00:54:25,549 --> 00:54:22,500
edge of our visibility

1467
00:54:26,930 --> 00:54:25,559
so the prediction would be we would get

1468
00:54:28,790 --> 00:54:26,940
more confident that there's something

1469
00:54:30,589 --> 00:54:28,800
really there going on but we wouldn't

1470
00:54:32,089 --> 00:54:30,599
actually learn that much more about them

1471
00:54:32,990 --> 00:54:32,099
we would just learned they really are

1472
00:54:35,390 --> 00:54:33,000
there

1473
00:54:37,730 --> 00:54:35,400
because under this hypothesis they're

1474
00:54:39,289 --> 00:54:37,740
trying to convince us they're there and

1475
00:54:41,390 --> 00:54:39,299
that they're impressive but not reveal

1476
00:54:43,190 --> 00:54:41,400
very much more

1477
00:54:44,630 --> 00:54:43,200
and then that's what we could hopefully

1478
00:54:46,549 --> 00:54:44,640
learn to be finally convinced they

1479
00:54:48,710 --> 00:54:46,559
really are there

1480
00:54:51,470 --> 00:54:48,720
and they really are accelerating an

1481
00:54:53,270 --> 00:54:51,480
enormous you know capabilities they

1482
00:54:55,490 --> 00:54:53,280
really have amazing

1483
00:54:57,770 --> 00:54:55,500
things we can't do they really deserve

1484
00:54:59,569 --> 00:54:57,780
to be seen as our top dog

1485
00:55:01,130 --> 00:54:59,579
it's dangling the carrot on the

1486
00:55:02,270 --> 00:55:01,140
treadmill or I don't suppose you want a

1487
00:55:03,470 --> 00:55:02,280
carrot on the treadmill probably the

1488
00:55:05,390 --> 00:55:03,480
chocolate bar if you're if you're

1489
00:55:07,970 --> 00:55:05,400
running towards a treat but like you say

1490
00:55:10,069 --> 00:55:07,980
it's always just one two one step too

1491
00:55:13,250 --> 00:55:10,079
far ahead of us and it's always going to

1492
00:55:15,530 --> 00:55:13,260
be there that they show us what we need

1493
00:55:17,690 --> 00:55:15,540
to see but not necessarily what we want

1494
00:55:18,890 --> 00:55:17,700
to see would that be right

1495
00:55:21,770 --> 00:55:18,900
well they don't want to show us many

1496
00:55:23,809 --> 00:55:21,780
details again anything we would hate

1497
00:55:26,150 --> 00:55:23,819
can't let us see the meeting babies or

1498
00:55:27,109 --> 00:55:26,160
whatever it is okay so they're not gonna

1499
00:55:29,450 --> 00:55:27,119
like

1500
00:55:31,130 --> 00:55:29,460
you send us the galactic Encyclopedia of

1501
00:55:33,650 --> 00:55:31,140
their history

1502
00:55:36,770 --> 00:55:33,660
right not going to hand us you know

1503
00:55:39,170 --> 00:55:36,780
technology for Fusion right unless they

1504
00:55:40,849 --> 00:55:39,180
can do that without saying much but

1505
00:55:42,710 --> 00:55:40,859
under this hypothesis we would

1506
00:55:44,450 --> 00:55:42,720
eventually be convinced yeah it's really

1507
00:55:46,010 --> 00:55:44,460
going on it's really there

1508
00:55:48,710 --> 00:55:46,020
it's really happening

1509
00:55:50,450 --> 00:55:48,720
and that's and that's worth knowing but

1510
00:55:52,250 --> 00:55:50,460
so interestingly under this hypothesis

1511
00:55:54,650 --> 00:55:52,260
they don't think they're much of a rust

1512
00:55:57,109 --> 00:55:54,660
persuadess of this they got a lot of

1513
00:55:58,190 --> 00:55:57,119
time so therefore we're not almost at

1514
00:56:00,530 --> 00:55:58,200
this point where they're worried about

1515
00:56:01,849 --> 00:56:00,540
us right so presumably they've got a

1516
00:56:03,230 --> 00:56:01,859
button somewhere and if we get too

1517
00:56:04,789 --> 00:56:03,240
uppity they push the button and we're

1518
00:56:07,670 --> 00:56:04,799
gone

1519
00:56:09,950 --> 00:56:07,680
and so the reset button yeah well you

1520
00:56:12,650 --> 00:56:09,960
know thing that erases us but you know

1521
00:56:15,470 --> 00:56:12,660
if we got too threatening to them to a

1522
00:56:17,089 --> 00:56:15,480
too capable of say finding them and

1523
00:56:18,710 --> 00:56:17,099
destroying them or expanding without

1524
00:56:21,230 --> 00:56:18,720
them being able to stop us than before

1525
00:56:23,930 --> 00:56:21,240
we got to that point they would be able

1526
00:56:25,069 --> 00:56:23,940
to just stop us right that has to be

1527
00:56:27,890 --> 00:56:25,079
true they have to have such a thing

1528
00:56:29,210 --> 00:56:27,900
ready and plausibly they they don't

1529
00:56:31,930 --> 00:56:29,220
think we're close

1530
00:56:33,829 --> 00:56:31,940
they're not in a rush right because

1531
00:56:35,210 --> 00:56:33,839
otherwise they would be a little more

1532
00:56:36,650 --> 00:56:35,220
aggressive about showing themselves to

1533
00:56:38,270 --> 00:56:36,660
make sure we saw them right and they're

1534
00:56:40,069 --> 00:56:38,280
not that aggressive they're hanging out

1535
00:56:42,289 --> 00:56:40,079
at the edge and they're they seem to be

1536
00:56:44,089 --> 00:56:42,299
okay with that they seem to be okay with

1537
00:56:45,589 --> 00:56:44,099
letting it take us a while to figure it

1538
00:56:47,750 --> 00:56:45,599
out

1539
00:56:49,250 --> 00:56:47,760
and another effort I want to get your

1540
00:56:51,589 --> 00:56:49,260
thoughts on that's just been announced

1541
00:56:54,829 --> 00:56:51,599
recently was NASA's own independent

1542
00:56:57,289 --> 00:56:54,839
study into UFOs how do you see that

1543
00:56:58,730 --> 00:56:57,299
playing out and is that potentially

1544
00:57:00,829 --> 00:56:58,740
something again that could bear any

1545
00:57:02,450 --> 00:57:00,839
fruit

1546
00:57:05,210 --> 00:57:02,460
so

1547
00:57:07,730 --> 00:57:05,220
you know I'm a futurist in many ways and

1548
00:57:09,230 --> 00:57:07,740
in the futurist world there's a lot of

1549
00:57:11,030 --> 00:57:09,240
people who pay attention to every new

1550
00:57:12,589 --> 00:57:11,040
news release about somebody who's got

1551
00:57:14,750 --> 00:57:12,599
some new thing that might be a new

1552
00:57:16,730 --> 00:57:14,760
Gadget right and I tend to think

1553
00:57:18,890 --> 00:57:16,740
look if you're going to focus on long

1554
00:57:20,690 --> 00:57:18,900
time scales that don't get lost in every

1555
00:57:22,549 --> 00:57:20,700
day's news fluctuations

1556
00:57:23,569 --> 00:57:22,559
look at the long-term trends and focus

1557
00:57:25,609 --> 00:57:23,579
on that

1558
00:57:27,589 --> 00:57:25,619
so assembly I would say look if you

1559
00:57:29,390 --> 00:57:27,599
think that UFOs might be aliens we're

1560
00:57:31,670 --> 00:57:29,400
talking a long-term game here a

1561
00:57:34,010 --> 00:57:31,680
long-term situation you know we've gone

1562
00:57:36,230 --> 00:57:34,020
at least 70 years with people making

1563
00:57:37,730 --> 00:57:36,240
reports it's mostly been treated

1564
00:57:40,849 --> 00:57:37,740
skeptically

1565
00:57:42,530 --> 00:57:40,859
opinion is evolving only very slowly at

1566
00:57:44,089 --> 00:57:42,540
the moment among most you know

1567
00:57:47,210 --> 00:57:44,099
prestigious intellectuals it's still

1568
00:57:49,490 --> 00:57:47,220
pretty Taboo it's still pretty ridiculed

1569
00:57:50,210 --> 00:57:49,500
that's likely to stay that way for a

1570
00:57:52,609 --> 00:57:50,220
while

1571
00:57:54,289 --> 00:57:52,619
it may slowly change and come over but

1572
00:57:57,170 --> 00:57:54,299
you're talking many decades we're not

1573
00:58:01,849 --> 00:57:59,690
so I think you just have to think of

1574
00:58:04,609 --> 00:58:01,859
this as an interesting fluctuation in

1575
00:58:06,530 --> 00:58:04,619
the short term that might you know push

1576
00:58:07,910 --> 00:58:06,540
things a bit in the right direction in

1577
00:58:09,410 --> 00:58:07,920
the long term but you can't get too

1578
00:58:10,430 --> 00:58:09,420
excited about each short-term

1579
00:58:12,470 --> 00:58:10,440
fluctuation

1580
00:58:15,289 --> 00:58:12,480
right because again this is a long game

1581
00:58:17,030 --> 00:58:15,299
we've had a hundred thousand UFO reports

1582
00:58:19,250 --> 00:58:17,040
out there written down

1583
00:58:20,990 --> 00:58:19,260
over the last 70 years

1584
00:58:22,130 --> 00:58:21,000
one or two more aren't going to make

1585
00:58:25,069 --> 00:58:22,140
that much difference

1586
00:58:26,750 --> 00:58:25,079
they slowly add another study another

1587
00:58:28,309 --> 00:58:26,760
group it isn't going to make that much

1588
00:58:30,530 --> 00:58:28,319
difference because you know I can just

1589
00:58:33,109 --> 00:58:30,540
tell you from the inside of knowing

1590
00:58:35,270 --> 00:58:33,119
prestigious intellectuals especially

1591
00:58:37,490 --> 00:58:35,280
those in the fields most sought it seen

1592
00:58:39,890 --> 00:58:37,500
as expertly close to this

1593
00:58:41,450 --> 00:58:39,900
it's a strong consensus that this stuff

1594
00:58:43,789 --> 00:58:41,460
is silly

1595
00:58:45,530 --> 00:58:43,799
and should just not be taken very

1596
00:58:47,690 --> 00:58:45,540
seriously and that's just going to take

1597
00:58:50,210 --> 00:58:47,700
a long time to change

1598
00:58:52,309 --> 00:58:50,220
that's just the facts so I can't give

1599
00:58:55,010 --> 00:58:52,319
you very much optimism about fast

1600
00:58:56,569 --> 00:58:55,020
short-term progress sorry that's okay

1601
00:58:58,010 --> 00:58:56,579
everyone's a lot of their opinion and

1602
00:58:59,990 --> 00:58:58,020
that's it you've put it across really

1603
00:59:01,849 --> 00:59:00,000
well I want to ask you just a couple of

1604
00:59:03,230 --> 00:59:01,859
listener questions to finish off in the

1605
00:59:05,870 --> 00:59:03,240
time we've got

1606
00:59:08,210 --> 00:59:05,880
um question from Matt he asks where

1607
00:59:09,650 --> 00:59:08,220
where does religion play a part in your

1608
00:59:12,589 --> 00:59:09,660
theory

1609
00:59:17,450 --> 00:59:15,049
so I just got a question like this

1610
00:59:19,130 --> 00:59:17,460
yesterday on a different podcast

1611
00:59:21,490 --> 00:59:19,140
somebody asked about what about what

1612
00:59:26,030 --> 00:59:21,500
about all the Paranormal stuff reported

1613
00:59:28,730 --> 00:59:26,040
with you know UFO reports so

1614
00:59:31,069 --> 00:59:28,740
the theory I gave you is a theory where

1615
00:59:32,930 --> 00:59:31,079
all the usual scientific theories are

1616
00:59:35,630 --> 00:59:32,940
basically right

1617
00:59:37,490 --> 00:59:35,640
and yet even so here there are aliens

1618
00:59:39,770 --> 00:59:37,500
visiting us and it took a bit of work to

1619
00:59:40,910 --> 00:59:39,780
put together a scenario like that and I

1620
00:59:42,890 --> 00:59:40,920
would actually say there's a prior

1621
00:59:45,770 --> 00:59:42,900
probability of one in a thousand on that

1622
00:59:46,970 --> 00:59:45,780
scenario which is high enough to be

1623
00:59:48,770 --> 00:59:46,980
worth looking at the evidence because

1624
00:59:50,390 --> 00:59:48,780
say in a typical murder trial the prior

1625
00:59:54,049 --> 00:59:50,400
might be one in a million that any one

1626
00:59:59,270 --> 00:59:57,349
so um that's my best guess but now if

1627
01:00:01,309 --> 00:59:59,280
you want to add into the hypothesis oh

1628
01:00:03,230 --> 01:00:01,319
and we're wrong about a bunch of very

1629
01:00:05,990 --> 01:00:03,240
basic theories about how things work

1630
01:00:07,609 --> 01:00:06,000
they really are ghosts and fairies

1631
01:00:10,309 --> 01:00:07,619
and ESP

1632
01:00:12,470 --> 01:00:10,319
and somehow the aliens find in their

1633
01:00:14,630 --> 01:00:12,480
interest to use that stuff

1634
01:00:16,069 --> 01:00:14,640
I struggle to come up with a hypothesis

1635
01:00:17,870 --> 01:00:16,079
that makes sense of that where I don't

1636
01:00:19,309 --> 01:00:17,880
have to have a much lower probability

1637
01:00:22,010 --> 01:00:19,319
right

1638
01:00:24,049 --> 01:00:22,020
uh and so if you throw in some sort of

1639
01:00:25,309 --> 01:00:24,059
religion hypothesis I'm gonna have to do

1640
01:00:27,170 --> 01:00:25,319
the same

1641
01:00:29,329 --> 01:00:27,180
I'm gonna have to say look

1642
01:00:31,490 --> 01:00:29,339
I'm going to buy into the usual

1643
01:00:32,690 --> 01:00:31,500
scientific consensus theories on most

1644
01:00:34,789 --> 01:00:32,700
things

1645
01:00:36,410 --> 01:00:34,799
and I'm going to try to ask how within

1646
01:00:38,750 --> 01:00:36,420
the space of our usual way of thinking

1647
01:00:40,670 --> 01:00:38,760
of us could maybe there be aliens around

1648
01:00:42,770 --> 01:00:40,680
who are looking like UFOs and I can come

1649
01:00:44,270 --> 01:00:42,780
up with something like that

1650
01:00:46,069 --> 01:00:44,280
do a little work so I have to give it

1651
01:00:48,470 --> 01:00:46,079
maybe a one on a thousand prior which

1652
01:00:50,630 --> 01:00:48,480
isn't you know huge but it's good enough

1653
01:00:52,730 --> 01:00:50,640
to make you look at the evidence but

1654
01:00:55,010 --> 01:00:52,740
again if you if you throw more things

1655
01:00:57,170 --> 01:00:55,020
into the next you say okay but now there

1656
01:00:59,329 --> 01:00:57,180
really is ESP

1657
01:01:01,670 --> 01:00:59,339
and now there really are ghosts and now

1658
01:01:03,770 --> 01:01:01,680
explain why the aliens want to make a

1659
01:01:05,510 --> 01:01:03,780
sea ghost I'm gonna go

1660
01:01:07,490 --> 01:01:05,520
first of all I think it's pretty

1661
01:01:09,410 --> 01:01:07,500
unlikely there are ghosts and second of

1662
01:01:11,750 --> 01:01:09,420
all why would the aliens need to make a

1663
01:01:13,789 --> 01:01:11,760
sea ghost I don't get it how does that

1664
01:01:15,530 --> 01:01:13,799
achieve their purposes like under the

1665
01:01:17,870 --> 01:01:15,540
scenario we know why they're here they

1666
01:01:20,150 --> 01:01:17,880
don't want us to expand the ghost thing

1667
01:01:21,950 --> 01:01:20,160
doesn't seem to help

1668
01:01:24,109 --> 01:01:21,960
so I don't get it right so I can't make

1669
01:01:26,569 --> 01:01:24,119
sense doesn't mean it might not be true

1670
01:01:29,450 --> 01:01:26,579
it just means it's not fitting for me in

1671
01:01:31,910 --> 01:01:29,460
my most likely scenario I can construct

1672
01:01:35,089 --> 01:01:31,920
and Matt had a follow-up that in that

1673
01:01:37,670 --> 01:01:35,099
model is there a room or place for alien

1674
01:01:40,490 --> 01:01:37,680
abduction to play a part in this or any

1675
01:01:42,890 --> 01:01:40,500
kind of alien contact

1676
01:01:44,990 --> 01:01:42,900
well again again you know think about

1677
01:01:46,250 --> 01:01:45,000
the simplest theory of why they would be

1678
01:01:48,410 --> 01:01:46,260
here and what they would what's the

1679
01:01:49,670 --> 01:01:48,420
purpose right their simple purpose is to

1680
01:01:52,309 --> 01:01:49,680
be our top dog

1681
01:01:54,890 --> 01:01:52,319
to convince us that they exist and that

1682
01:01:57,890 --> 01:01:54,900
they are more impressive than us

1683
01:01:59,150 --> 01:01:57,900
so how would abducting people help with

1684
01:02:02,029 --> 01:01:59,160
that

1685
01:02:03,529 --> 01:02:02,039
it looks a lot more risky

1686
01:02:05,270 --> 01:02:03,539
they're risking a lot more close contact

1687
01:02:07,430 --> 01:02:05,280
a lot more ways we could find details

1688
01:02:10,250 --> 01:02:07,440
about them

1689
01:02:13,010 --> 01:02:10,260
they're doing it in ways that like don't

1690
01:02:15,950 --> 01:02:13,020
make other people believe it very easily

1691
01:02:17,990 --> 01:02:15,960
right like showing on a producting

1692
01:02:20,569 --> 01:02:18,000
people in Times Square

1693
01:02:23,210 --> 01:02:20,579
is doing it off on the edge and so I

1694
01:02:25,609 --> 01:02:23,220
just don't see how it achieves the

1695
01:02:27,710 --> 01:02:25,619
plausible purpose of impressing us

1696
01:02:29,390 --> 01:02:27,720
in ways that convinces they exist and

1697
01:02:30,890 --> 01:02:29,400
that they're friendly and high so you

1698
01:02:32,329 --> 01:02:30,900
know in fact also one of the key

1699
01:02:34,730 --> 01:02:32,339
criteria is they need to not be

1700
01:02:35,990 --> 01:02:34,740
threatening and what in fact UFO reports

1701
01:02:37,910 --> 01:02:36,000
do seem to be consistently not

1702
01:02:40,130 --> 01:02:37,920
threatening in terms of they don't seem

1703
01:02:41,690 --> 01:02:40,140
to run up and attack a fighter plane or

1704
01:02:43,490 --> 01:02:41,700
something and they don't destroy things

1705
01:02:45,109 --> 01:02:43,500
whereas they obviously could

1706
01:02:47,630 --> 01:02:45,119
and that would be one key thing about

1707
01:02:50,029 --> 01:02:47,640
being our top dog and when we of course

1708
01:02:53,390 --> 01:02:50,039
you know are the top dog for horses or

1709
01:02:55,010 --> 01:02:53,400
dogs we we use a little bit of violence

1710
01:02:56,450 --> 01:02:55,020
and harm to discipline them but we make

1711
01:02:57,529 --> 01:02:56,460
it clear that's just because they're

1712
01:02:59,150 --> 01:02:57,539
being punished for something but

1713
01:03:01,130 --> 01:02:59,160
otherwise we're mostly their friends and

1714
01:03:02,930 --> 01:03:01,140
their supporters and we are trying to

1715
01:03:04,609 --> 01:03:02,940
help them right

1716
01:03:05,870 --> 01:03:04,619
well that's what they would need to be

1717
01:03:08,089 --> 01:03:05,880
doing with us seeming to be

1718
01:03:09,349 --> 01:03:08,099
unthreatening so the abductions look

1719
01:03:11,210 --> 01:03:09,359
kind of threatening

1720
01:03:14,270 --> 01:03:11,220
they don't look so friendly

1721
01:03:16,609 --> 01:03:14,280
this this doesn't seem a wise move

1722
01:03:17,990 --> 01:03:16,619
right it doesn't communicate the thing

1723
01:03:20,870 --> 01:03:18,000
they're trying to communicate and it

1724
01:03:23,450 --> 01:03:20,880
doesn't make them seem you know friendly

1725
01:03:26,089 --> 01:03:23,460
I'm just not seeing how it makes sense

1726
01:03:28,130 --> 01:03:26,099
as as a strategy

1727
01:03:29,870 --> 01:03:28,140
and let me ask one final question from

1728
01:03:31,309 --> 01:03:29,880
Newman I'll ask the question and then

1729
01:03:32,750 --> 01:03:31,319
I'll give you the context he's given me

1730
01:03:34,789 --> 01:03:32,760
behind it as well

1731
01:03:37,010 --> 01:03:34,799
um Newman asks what kind of

1732
01:03:39,109 --> 01:03:37,020
relationships amongst Intergalactic

1733
01:03:40,970 --> 01:03:39,119
Empires would the grab it alien model

1734
01:03:43,190 --> 01:03:40,980
imply would it be similar to

1735
01:03:45,650 --> 01:03:43,200
Intergalactic cold war or Colonial

1736
01:03:48,470 --> 01:03:45,660
politics he gives the context of in

1737
01:03:50,029 --> 01:03:48,480
ufology a frequently propagated claim is

1738
01:03:51,829 --> 01:03:50,039
that Earth is a theater stage of

1739
01:03:54,230 --> 01:03:51,839
Intergalactic cold war between different

1740
01:03:56,390 --> 01:03:54,240
species for the control of our genetic

1741
01:03:59,450 --> 01:03:56,400
and Spiritual Development we've got tall

1742
01:04:01,789 --> 01:03:59,460
Grays tall whites and palladians if they

1743
01:04:04,970 --> 01:04:01,799
really exist the behavior might stem

1744
01:04:08,510 --> 01:04:04,980
from them just being grabby aliens

1745
01:04:10,490 --> 01:04:08,520
so under the gravity aliens model

1746
01:04:12,109 --> 01:04:10,500
again this is without panspermia

1747
01:04:14,450 --> 01:04:12,119
siblings this is just a simple model

1748
01:04:15,410 --> 01:04:14,460
they appear roughly once per million

1749
01:04:17,690 --> 01:04:15,420
galaxies

1750
01:04:19,309 --> 01:04:17,700
they expand near the speed of light and

1751
01:04:20,329 --> 01:04:19,319
they keep expanding until they meet each

1752
01:04:21,770 --> 01:04:20,339
other

1753
01:04:23,870 --> 01:04:21,780
and that would be in roughly a billion

1754
01:04:26,510 --> 01:04:23,880
years from now if we did that

1755
01:04:28,430 --> 01:04:26,520
at that point they meet each other and

1756
01:04:30,230 --> 01:04:28,440
then they may or may not have conflicts

1757
01:04:32,450 --> 01:04:30,240
at those borders

1758
01:04:36,589 --> 01:04:32,460
but until then they just are having

1759
01:04:40,309 --> 01:04:36,599
internal expansion and uh creation so

1760
01:04:43,190 --> 01:04:40,319
by assumption we are not now within the

1761
01:04:44,930 --> 01:04:43,200
sphere of control of grammy aliens that

1762
01:04:47,210 --> 01:04:44,940
is the point is they would be very

1763
01:04:50,029 --> 01:04:47,220
visible and obvious

1764
01:04:52,370 --> 01:04:50,039
so that means we can't now be within the

1765
01:04:54,710 --> 01:04:52,380
sphere of conflict of two

1766
01:04:57,170 --> 01:04:54,720
sets of gravity aliens because that

1767
01:04:59,809 --> 01:04:57,180
would be even more obvious right

1768
01:05:02,150 --> 01:04:59,819
uh so

1769
01:05:05,750 --> 01:05:02,160
the simplest version of the theory says

1770
01:05:07,370 --> 01:05:05,760
that that's just not apply now we can

1771
01:05:09,710 --> 01:05:07,380
start to make variations one variation

1772
01:05:11,150 --> 01:05:09,720
would be somehow what they're doing in

1773
01:05:13,069 --> 01:05:11,160
Reverse they're changing things but

1774
01:05:14,329 --> 01:05:13,079
somehow in a way it doesn't make a

1775
01:05:15,770 --> 01:05:14,339
visible difference somehow we're just

1776
01:05:18,650 --> 01:05:15,780
not looking at the right sort of thing

1777
01:05:20,270 --> 01:05:18,660
to be able to see the difference

1778
01:05:21,289 --> 01:05:20,280
it's hard for me to believe but at least

1779
01:05:23,270 --> 01:05:21,299
that would be a variation you could

1780
01:05:24,650 --> 01:05:23,280
think of but now again

1781
01:05:29,150 --> 01:05:24,660
um

1782
01:05:30,170 --> 01:05:29,160
be powerful enough to be worth fighting

1783
01:05:32,150 --> 01:05:30,180
over

1784
01:05:33,829 --> 01:05:32,160
they could simply come here and take

1785
01:05:35,510 --> 01:05:33,839
over if they just arrived here they

1786
01:05:37,970 --> 01:05:35,520
could just you know in a short time

1787
01:05:41,210 --> 01:05:37,980
change everything here to their liking

1788
01:05:44,809 --> 01:05:41,220
we have little to offer them in terms of

1789
01:05:47,510 --> 01:05:44,819
direct power so now but there is a way

1790
01:05:50,569 --> 01:05:47,520
that quiet alien civilizations can serve

1791
01:05:53,990 --> 01:05:50,579
the purposes of

1792
01:05:56,029 --> 01:05:54,000
um loud ones so

1793
01:05:58,069 --> 01:05:56,039
um the idea would be there's a lot more

1794
01:06:00,109 --> 01:05:58,079
quiet ones than loud ones

1795
01:06:01,670 --> 01:06:00,119
and Loud ones are thinking a lot about

1796
01:06:02,450 --> 01:06:01,680
what happens when they meet the other

1797
01:06:05,450 --> 01:06:02,460
loud

1798
01:06:07,670 --> 01:06:05,460
and they want to collect data about what

1799
01:06:09,230 --> 01:06:07,680
are all civilizations like because

1800
01:06:11,210 --> 01:06:09,240
they're trying to guess what will these

1801
01:06:12,950 --> 01:06:11,220
aliens be like when we meet them they're

1802
01:06:15,170 --> 01:06:12,960
going to be really eager for data like

1803
01:06:16,970 --> 01:06:15,180
that and when they finally meet one

1804
01:06:18,529 --> 01:06:16,980
other grabby alien civilization they

1805
01:06:20,990 --> 01:06:18,539
will at that point in space-time they

1806
01:06:23,150 --> 01:06:21,000
will have never met any others before

1807
01:06:25,849 --> 01:06:23,160
so they're only data they have about

1808
01:06:26,870 --> 01:06:25,859
aliens is The Quiet Ones they meet along

1809
01:06:28,970 --> 01:06:26,880
the way

1810
01:06:30,950 --> 01:06:28,980
they may come across the ruins of quiet

1811
01:06:33,890 --> 01:06:30,960
ones or quiet ones that are just

1812
01:06:35,750 --> 01:06:33,900
long-lived but stay very local and that

1813
01:06:37,910 --> 01:06:35,760
data would be very valuable to them they

1814
01:06:39,829 --> 01:06:37,920
want to know what are quiet alien

1815
01:06:42,230 --> 01:06:39,839
civilizations like as a way to guess

1816
01:06:44,029 --> 01:06:42,240
what will these grabby ones be like when

1817
01:06:46,130 --> 01:06:44,039
we meet them

1818
01:06:48,589 --> 01:06:46,140
that isn't necessarily consistent with

1819
01:06:49,910 --> 01:06:48,599
them being peaceful they may come and

1820
01:06:51,589 --> 01:06:49,920
disassemble everyone and take all the

1821
01:06:54,410 --> 01:06:51,599
data that way but

1822
01:06:56,270 --> 01:06:54,420
still they would the you know the

1823
01:06:57,349 --> 01:06:56,280
quality of civilizations per gram or

1824
01:07:00,049 --> 01:06:57,359
something would just be much more

1825
01:07:02,170 --> 01:07:00,059
valuable as data than just as raw

1826
01:07:04,309 --> 01:07:02,180
material to make stuff because again

1827
01:07:07,510 --> 01:07:04,319
moving across

1828
01:07:11,930 --> 01:07:07,520
billions of light years to finally meet

1829
01:07:13,670 --> 01:07:11,940
uh aliens they will have vast stars and

1830
01:07:15,170 --> 01:07:13,680
planets and everything to use to do

1831
01:07:16,069 --> 01:07:15,180
things but they'll only meet maybe a

1832
01:07:18,410 --> 01:07:16,079
couple

1833
01:07:20,450 --> 01:07:18,420
quiet alien civilizations

1834
01:07:22,730 --> 01:07:20,460
and those would then be enormously

1835
01:07:26,329 --> 01:07:22,740
valuable as data

1836
01:07:28,430 --> 01:07:26,339
so if for some reason some gravityland

1837
01:07:29,690 --> 01:07:28,440
civilization came past here and is

1838
01:07:32,089 --> 01:07:29,700
expanding out and somehow we didn't

1839
01:07:33,829 --> 01:07:32,099
notice them

1840
01:07:36,710 --> 01:07:33,839
the thing we would conclude is that they

1841
01:07:38,930 --> 01:07:36,720
are they study us very carefully

1842
01:07:41,270 --> 01:07:38,940
not because they're afraid of us not

1843
01:07:43,309 --> 01:07:41,280
because we can do much for them just

1844
01:07:44,750 --> 01:07:43,319
because we're their best data about

1845
01:07:46,130 --> 01:07:44,760
these strange aliens they're going to

1846
01:07:47,630 --> 01:07:46,140
meet in the future

1847
01:07:49,490 --> 01:07:47,640
they just want to know what are aliens

1848
01:07:50,930 --> 01:07:49,500
like

1849
01:07:52,549 --> 01:07:50,940
it would certainly put us in our

1850
01:07:54,170 --> 01:07:52,559
Intergalactic place in the universe

1851
01:07:56,150 --> 01:07:54,180
wouldn't it to know that we were just a

1852
01:07:57,650 --> 01:07:56,160
data sample for some other species it

1853
01:07:58,849 --> 01:07:57,660
was so much in addition to it in a

1854
01:08:01,190 --> 01:07:58,859
sample we can also be a coordination

1855
01:08:04,370 --> 01:08:01,200
point so this is kind of interesting

1856
01:08:07,190 --> 01:08:04,380
when two grabby alien civilizations meet

1857
01:08:10,069 --> 01:08:07,200
they may have both gotten data from the

1858
01:08:11,930 --> 01:08:10,079
same quiet alien civilizations

1859
01:08:13,609 --> 01:08:11,940
so those quietials and civilizations

1860
01:08:15,650 --> 01:08:13,619
could be a coordination point when they

1861
01:08:17,990 --> 01:08:15,660
want to know what should we expect them

1862
01:08:19,970 --> 01:08:18,000
to think we can say well they saw the

1863
01:08:22,070 --> 01:08:19,980
same quiet one we did

1864
01:08:23,930 --> 01:08:22,080
so this quiet one could create common

1865
01:08:26,149 --> 01:08:23,940
expectations about what we should both

1866
01:08:28,729 --> 01:08:26,159
expect to happen when we meet

1867
01:08:30,289 --> 01:08:28,739
and so we quiet alien civilizations

1868
01:08:34,189 --> 01:08:30,299
could serve that purpose

1869
01:08:36,229 --> 01:08:34,199
to not just give one an expectation but

1870
01:08:39,530 --> 01:08:36,239
give them both simultaneously the

1871
01:08:42,110 --> 01:08:39,540
expectation of what are aliens like

1872
01:08:43,849 --> 01:08:42,120
we could be their main idea of what what

1873
01:08:45,769 --> 01:08:43,859
each other are like

1874
01:08:48,829 --> 01:08:45,779
they might each assume the other one is

1875
01:08:52,550 --> 01:08:51,229
that's a fascinating idea I want to

1876
01:08:53,990 --> 01:08:52,560
finish just that you mentioned you're

1877
01:08:55,430 --> 01:08:54,000
writing a book currently if you could

1878
01:08:56,870 --> 01:08:55,440
give us a little bit of information on

1879
01:08:58,669 --> 01:08:56,880
the book and obviously when we can

1880
01:09:00,950 --> 01:08:58,679
expect that to be released if you've got

1881
01:09:02,630 --> 01:09:00,960
that information to hand uh if there's

1882
01:09:03,890 --> 01:09:02,640
no date even for releasing is still

1883
01:09:06,050 --> 01:09:03,900
being written

1884
01:09:08,990 --> 01:09:06,060
but the idea is

1885
01:09:11,809 --> 01:09:09,000
we talked about why people might want to

1886
01:09:14,450 --> 01:09:11,819
stay as a quiet alien civilization

1887
01:09:16,309 --> 01:09:14,460
and how difficult that might be

1888
01:09:17,930 --> 01:09:16,319
and therefore how this would be the

1889
01:09:20,209 --> 01:09:17,940
biggest choice we might face in the

1890
01:09:22,849 --> 01:09:20,219
future is whether or not to stay quiet

1891
01:09:25,010 --> 01:09:22,859
or whether to become loud

1892
01:09:26,749 --> 01:09:25,020
and so being is that such an important

1893
01:09:28,669 --> 01:09:26,759
question I want to deframe that question

1894
01:09:30,590 --> 01:09:28,679
and make it Vivid

1895
01:09:33,110 --> 01:09:30,600
that is I want to set up the context of

1896
01:09:36,410 --> 01:09:33,120
grabielians and quiet versus loud aliens

1897
01:09:38,269 --> 01:09:36,420
and our future and the things that might

1898
01:09:40,070 --> 01:09:38,279
happen to us if we compete or allow

1899
01:09:42,769 --> 01:09:40,080
ourselves to change the kinds of

1900
01:09:44,930 --> 01:09:42,779
coordinations that we might like to do

1901
01:09:45,950 --> 01:09:44,940
set up and make Vivid this choice we

1902
01:09:49,070 --> 01:09:45,960
will have

1903
01:09:52,430 --> 01:09:49,080
between staying quiet and becoming loud

1904
01:09:55,610 --> 01:09:52,440
and I may have an opinion that we should

1905
01:09:57,709 --> 01:09:55,620
become loud but it's not my place to

1906
01:09:59,930 --> 01:09:57,719
beat you over the head with my opinion

1907
01:10:01,790 --> 01:09:59,940
this is a choice that may not be made

1908
01:10:04,070 --> 01:10:01,800
for thousands of years

1909
01:10:06,470 --> 01:10:04,080
and later on when it is made they will

1910
01:10:08,930 --> 01:10:06,480
may know much more than we do now

1911
01:10:11,209 --> 01:10:08,940
so my opinion is less important than

1912
01:10:12,830 --> 01:10:11,219
setting up the question to say let's

1913
01:10:13,610 --> 01:10:12,840
start thinking about this question let's

1914
01:10:15,890 --> 01:10:13,620
start

1915
01:10:18,350 --> 01:10:15,900
collecting opinions and collecting

1916
01:10:20,450 --> 01:10:18,360
considerations to prepare us for the day

1917
01:10:22,910 --> 01:10:20,460
when we may someday want to make this

1918
01:10:26,630 --> 01:10:24,950
Robin it's been fascinating speaking

1919
01:10:29,330 --> 01:10:26,640
with you I really hope I've managed to

1920
01:10:30,950 --> 01:10:29,340
do it justice it's a breath of fresh air

1921
01:10:32,450 --> 01:10:30,960
to discuss different ideas from a

1922
01:10:34,550 --> 01:10:32,460
different perspective as well and the

1923
01:10:36,050 --> 01:10:34,560
model certainly is interesting and when

1924
01:10:37,970 --> 01:10:36,060
that book is released it'd be great to

1925
01:10:38,930 --> 01:10:37,980
have you on to talk about it back on the

1926
01:10:41,630 --> 01:10:38,940
podcast

1927
01:10:43,490 --> 01:10:41,640
be happy to come and if anyone's got any

1928
01:10:45,050 --> 01:10:43,500
follow-up questions for Robin I do

1929
01:10:46,970 --> 01:10:45,060
believe you'll be speaking to Dan

1930
01:10:48,649 --> 01:10:46,980
zetters from down the line for coloring

1931
01:10:50,149 --> 01:10:48,659
outside the lines I think he was

1932
01:10:52,189 --> 01:10:50,159
arranging an interview with you for for

1933
01:10:53,390 --> 01:10:52,199
some time in the near future so that's

1934
01:10:54,950 --> 01:10:53,400
something people could get in touch with

1935
01:10:56,149 --> 01:10:54,960
Dan about if they've got any follow-ups

1936
01:10:58,130 --> 01:10:56,159
as it'll be a different type of

1937
01:10:59,750 --> 01:10:58,140
conversation he has with you I have

1938
01:11:01,910 --> 01:10:59,760
generally just been accepting all

1939
01:11:04,130 --> 01:11:01,920
invitations to do conversations like

1940
01:11:06,169 --> 01:11:04,140
this so if anybody has invited me I've

1941
01:11:08,090 --> 01:11:06,179
probably said yes yeah I think I think

1942
01:11:09,590 --> 01:11:08,100
you have but yeah any questions send it

1943
01:11:10,790 --> 01:11:09,600
send them over to Dan and he will

1944
01:11:12,350 --> 01:11:10,800
certainly get those in there for you

1945
01:11:15,229 --> 01:11:12,360
Robin it's been a pleasure speaking with

1946
01:11:17,149 --> 01:11:15,239
you nice talking to you that is all for

1947
01:11:19,189 --> 01:11:17,159
this week's show thank you very much for

1948
01:11:21,410 --> 01:11:19,199
listening please remember to leave the

1949
01:11:24,709 --> 01:11:21,420
podcast a review on your chosen platform

1950
01:11:26,689 --> 01:11:24,719
you can like retweet And subscribe that

1951
01:11:28,729 --> 01:11:26,699
would all be very much appreciated the

1952
01:11:30,649 --> 01:11:28,739
shows are being uploaded onto YouTube as

1953
01:11:33,229 --> 01:11:30,659
we speak more and more you can sign up

1954
01:11:35,570 --> 01:11:33,239
at patreon.com forward slash that UFO

1955
01:11:37,970 --> 01:11:35,580
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1956
01:11:41,030 --> 01:11:37,980
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1957
01:11:44,630 --> 01:11:41,040
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1958
01:11:46,669 --> 01:11:44,640
Twitter it's at UFO UAP am and again

1959
01:11:52,729 --> 01:11:46,679
folks as always keep looking up you

1960
01:11:52,739 --> 01:12:06,990
champagne

1961
01:12:27,110 --> 01:12:19,370
[Music]

1962
01:12:27,120 --> 01:12:40,970
oh

1963
01:12:40,980 --> 01:12:59,020
definitely kiss myself

1964
01:13:45,630 --> 01:13:04,580
[Music]

1965
01:14:09,650 --> 01:13:45,640
quite a disaster

1966
01:14:43,510 --> 01:14:29,920
[Music]

1967
01:14:50,090 --> 01:14:45,370
very much

1968
01:14:52,390 --> 01:14:52,189
today